East Africa Seasonal Monitor: October 26, 2018

Rainfall expected to increase, signaling the full onset of the October to December seasonal rains

KEY MESSAGES

• The onset of the October to December seasonal rains during the first three weeks of October was generally erratic in terms of intensity and spatial and temporal distribution across East Africa.
The start of the Deyr was delayed one to three weeks in Somalia and parts of Ethiopia, most notably in the agropastoral livelihood zones of southern Somalia.

• Early season rainfall is generally favorable for agricultural production in Uganda, western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and eastern DRC. However, there are localized areas that had a significantly delayed or erratic onset.

• Overall, rangeland resources remained above average in pastoral areas of eastern Horn. However, the Karamoja sub-region in Uganda, southeastern Equatoria in South Sudan, Turkana in Kenya, and southern Ethiopia have experienced significantly drierthan-normal conditions over the past month.

• According to the 1- and 2-week rainfall forecasts, there is an increased likelihood for widespread moderate rainfall and localized very heavy rainfall across much of equatorial East Africa, due to the influence of a mild El Niño. This would mark the full establishment of the seasonal rains by the end of October and would increase seasonal flood risk.