East Africa Seasonal Monitor: November 20, 2018

KEY MESSAGES

• Significant rainfall deficits continue to accumulate in the eastern half of the Horn of Africa as the Deyr season progresses. Deficits are -25 to -100 mm or worse in southern and central Somalia, central and eastern Kenya, and southeastern and other localized parts of Ethiopia.

• Favorable cropping conditions have been maintained in the western sector of the East Africa region, despite an erratic onset of the rainy season and poorly distributed, below-average rainfall amounts in parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and western Kenya.

• Rangeland resources have continued to deteriorate in many areas.
In much of the eastern Horn, poor rainfall performance is driving an expansion of drier-than-normal conditions, and is expected to lead to an increase in herd migration in search of better water and pasture.

• The rainfall forecast indicates an increased likelihood of uneven, moderate to heavy rains across eastern Horn through midNovember, followed by a decline in precipitation by the end of the month. Below-average rainfall amounts are likely at the end of November in most parts of eastern Horn.