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East Africa Seasonal Monitor: June 18, 2021

Situation Report
Originally published
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The March-May seasonal rains were below average over most of the eastern Horn


• Cumulative rainfall for the 2021 March to May rainy season was generally less than 85 percent over much of the eastern Horn despite moderate to heavy rainfall in late April and early May. The worst-affected areas received less than 55 percent of normal rainfall. The rest of the region experienced near-average to above- average rainfall during this period.

• In May, rangeland resources significantly improved across East Africa following the late seasonal rainfall. These rains are expected to provide short-term improvements to pasture and water conditions over the eastern Horn.

• In the main cereal production areas in East Africa's western and central regions, crop production prospects remain favorable for both the belg and long rain-dependent areas. However, below- average to moderately-to-significantly below-average crop production is anticipated over the eastern regions due to delayed onset and insufficient and poorly distributed March-May seasonal rainfall.

• The dry season over much of the eastern Horn of Africa has begun following the end of the March-May rains. Meanwhile, in the northern sector of the region, a timely onset of the June- September seasonal rains is currently underway.