East Africa Seasonal Monitor: July 27, 2018
Enhanced seasonal rains and likely flooding are forecast for northern parts of the region
June to September seasonal rains are fully established in the northern sector of the region, as above-average rainfall amounts have been received across parts of Sudan, western Ethiopia, and northern South Sudan, helping ease localized early season deficits. These enhanced rains have largely benefited early season agricultural activities in these countries.
Significantly greener-than-normal vegetation conditions still persist across Kenya, much of Somalia, and southeastern Ethiopia due to the above-average March to May rainy season. In other areas of the region, rainfall since June has led to marked vegetation improvements across South Sudan, southern Sudan, and western Ethiopia, but below-average conditions persist in Ethiopia’s Afar Region and northeastern Somalia.
The short-term rainfall outlook for the northern sector indicates an increased likelihood for continued moderate to very heavy rainfall. As a result, a high risk of flooding remains likely across eastern Sudan and western Ethiopia lowlands due to already high soil saturation and river levels.