ReliefWeb

Moderate to heavy rainfall in late April may alleviate dry conditions, but is forecast to subside in May

Key Messages

• Below-average rainfall over the past month has exacerbated drought conditions in equatorial East Africa and the Horn. This has delayed or impeded crop production in many agricultural and agropastoral areas and resulted in significant vegetation and surface water deficits that have impacted livestock production

• Meanwhile, the southwestern, central, and northeastern regions of Ethiopia together with much of southern Tanzania continued to receive average to well above rainfall amounts for past months. In Sudan, conditions remained seasonally dry in the north but vegetation remains in good condition.

• The forecast through May 2nd is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy rainfall much of the region, driven by the presence of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth over Mozambique and Tanzania. This is anticipated to bring partially replenish pasture and water availability, especially over Kenya, southern and southeastern Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. However, there is also an increased likelihood of flooding over coastal regions and typical flood-prone areas such as the Mt. Elgon region.

SEASONAL PROGRESS

During the past month, from March 21 to April 20, rainfall performance has been well below average across equatorial East Africa. This is typically the peak period of the March to May seasonal rains in this region. However, the seasonal rains were yet to be fully established in these regions, which continued to experience prolonged dryness and hotter-than-normal weather conditions. Areas that are worst affected by rainfall deficits include northern Tanzania, most of Kenya, northeastern Uganda, southern and central Somalia, and southeastern Ethiopia, which received less than 50 percent of the long-term average (Figure 1). In some parts of southeastern Kenya and southern Somalia, deficits were less than a quarter of average rainfall. Although Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of southern Uganda also experienced below-average rainfall, but deficits were less severe, with rainfall ranging from 76 to 90 percent of average. Conversely, southern and parts of central Tanzania, as well as the southwestern, central, and northeastern Belg-cropping regions of Ethiopia, received average (91-110 percent) to above average (>110 percent) rainfall amounts during this period.

The overall poor performance of the Gu/long rains season is due to the presence of the continued, disruptive presence of tropical storms/depressions and cyclones over the past two months. There are early indications of another tropical cyclone occurring along the Mozambique Channel this week. However, its forecast track could be beneficial, as it is anticipated to bring widespread rainfall to anomalously dry regions of East Africa. Heavy rains and high winds are currently occurring over parts of southern Tanzania, Mozambique and neighboring countries.

The impact of the poor seasonal rains combined with exceptionally hotter-than-normal conditions are severe and extensive, evidenced by rapidly deteriorating pasture conditions, water stress in early-planted crops, and depleted surface water across Kenya, southern and parts of eastern Ethiopia, southern and central Somalia, northeastern and central Uganda, and southern South Sudan. Based on the eMODIS/Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, there are extensive areas of significantly drier-than-normal vegetation conditions across many areas (Figure 2). However, in much of the northern sector of East Africa – namely Sudan, parts of South Sudan, and western Ethiopia – vegetation has continued to remain favorable with greener-than-normal conditions.

Recent FEWS NET and Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG) reports indicate that the region is experiencing drought conditions, which are likely to persist until the end of the March to May season, despite the forecast of increased rainfall in the coming weeks. The anticipated increase in rainfall in the final week of April through May would be too late in the season to aid crop recovery in many areas, resulting in a significantly increased likelihood of below-average maize crop production and below-average rangeland resource recovery across the eastern Horn. However, the rains would bring short-term relief in terms of slight surface water recharge and partial regeneration of pasture and browse in pastoral and wildlife zones.