Somalia + 9 more

East Africa Seasonal Monitor: April 23, 2018

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Seasonal rainfall well above average across many areas of the Horn

KEY MESSAGES

• Since late March, rainfall has been above average over broad areas of Somalia, eastern and southern Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi. Initial satellite-derived estimates suggest rainfall since late March has been as much as 200 percent of average across many areas.

• Favorable seasonal performance over the past 30 days has contributed to a continuation of timely and well-distributed rains that had already resulted in seasonal rainfall surpluses across much of the region. Overall, seasonal rainfall totals in excess of 150 percent of average have been observed across much of the region, though poor performance has been observed in parts of northern Ethiopia.

• Short-term forecasts suggest heavy rainfall is likely to continue over the next week in much of the region, which should further strengthen rainfall surpluses in many areas, and may reduce rainfall deficits in parts of northern Ethiopia.

In early May, rainfall is expected to continue, but become relatively less widespread and will be concentrated over southwestern and eastern Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, coastal, central and western Kenya, and northern and coastal Tanzania.