ReliefWeb

Current food security outcomes

• Famine is expanding in Somalia while the food security emergency is deepening in the rest of the eastern Horn (Figure 1). About 12.5 million people are in need of assistance and a multi‐sectoral response is critical to prevent deaths and total collapse of livelihood and social systems.

• Food insecurity in the eastern Horn will most likely persist into the first quarter of 2012 due to low or failed long rains harvests and rapidly declining range resources. Deteriorating environmental conditions are fueled by above‐normal temperatures and are likely to intensify in the Mandera triangle due to below‐normal October to December 2011 rains as forecast by the ECMWF.

• High cereal prices are leading to deterioration of pastoral terms of trade despite the recent slight improvement in livestock value following late April rainfall. These terms of trade will most likely continue to worsen as livestock value and prices begin to decline because of distress sales as range resources decline. The anticipated decline of cereal prices in September will not be sufficient to benefit poor households.

• Food insecurity is at Crisis levels along the borders of Sudan and the newly independent Republic of South Sudan due to restricted cross‐border trade, conflict, and pressure from returnees who are yet to be integrated in the production cycle. Affected areas include northern Bahr el Ghazal, Unity, parts of Jonglei, Warrap, Lakes and Upper Nile states. In addition, rainfall deficits in parts of eastern and central Sudan are raising concerns for harvest prospects.