Acute food insecurity likely to decline for most poor households from October to March.
October to March 2013 is anticipated to have a significant reduction in the food insecure population in East Africa from the exceptionally high level of acute food insecurity during the peak of the drought crisis in August 2011. An estimated 14.5 million people in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, and Rwanda, down from 16 million in September 2012, are in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) phases of acute food insecurity.
Generally favorable agroclimactic conditions have improved production, labor, and security in Sudan,
South Sudan, Djibouti, and parts of Somalia and Ethiopia. Poor households are expected to soon experience significant improvements in food security outcomes as a result.
While significant improvements in food security are anticipated through March 2013, poor households live in high risk environments. Possible unexpected shocks may increase acute food insecurity, including increased conflict, macroeconomic changes, dramatic increases or volatility in food and non-food prices, unpredictable humanitarian assistance flows, and sudden flooding, which often leads to asset losses and the proliferation of vector- and water-borne diseases.