An estimated 1.7 million people in North,
Central, and Southern Regions of Somalia are facing conditions of Acute
Food and Livelihood Crisis or Humanitarian Emergency at least until June
2006. The Food Security Analysis Unit for Somalia (FSAU), implemented by
FAO and funded by the European Commission and USAID, together with FEWS
NET/Somalia and 40 partner agencies, have completed a comprehensive situation
analysis following the Deyr rainy season which has largely failed. The
results confirm previous early warnings of crop failure, considerable livestock
deaths, and fears of dire humanitarian consequences due to extreme shortages
of food and water (see FSAU Monthly Briefs for November and December 2005).
The crisis is particularly severe in
the Southern Regions of Somalia, where an estimated 1.4 million people
are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Further stressing their
plight, the drought is regional in nature, extending into Ethiopia and
Kenya and covering large areas of the greater Somali livelihood system.
Depending on humanitarian response and access, the potential for outbreaks
of increased conflict, and food/water supplies, FSAU further warns that
there is a moderate risk of Famine conditions in the coming months for
the area around Gedo Region.
The cereal harvest has been far below normal for two consecutive seasons, with a combined annual production of 50% of the post war average for Somalia as a whole-the worst harvest in over 10 years. The six worst affected regions (Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Gedo, and Hiran) all had cereal production of less than 25% of the post war average. Sorghum prices have increased 50% in the last month - the highest levels in years - with further sharp increases anticipated in the coming months.
Already, an estimated 20-30% of cattle in Gedo Region have died due to lack of water and pasture. Preliminary estimates are that upwards to 80% of the cattle in Gedo could perish by April, before the next rains are expected. Due to poor body condition, cattle prices have plummeted by over 50% in the past few months. Pastoralists are engaging in a range of distress coping strategies including inducing still births to save breeding stock, skinning animals for their hide, sale of breeding animals, exposing animals to tsetse fly infested areas, and conducting "compassion slaughtering" of weak animals as they move from place to place in search of water.
Within the context of several already existing resource-based conflicts and general civil tension throughout Southern Regions, there is high potential for sharp increases in both the number and severity of conflicts, which would further undermine conditions and reduce humanitarian access to areas in critical need of assistance. Any disruption of food supply lines through continued marine piracy or localized conflict will further decrease food access and availability.
Malnutrition rates in critical areas are already estimated at 25% (with rates above 15% considered emergency' conditions). Some therapeutic feeding centers have seen increases in attendance of over 50% in the past months. Malnutrition being an outcome indicator of severity, these early signs of deterioration are of great concern and are expected to dramatically worsen in the coming months.
"While Somalia is normally one of the poorest and most food insecure countries in the world, current conditions are dire and way beyond the typically resilient Somali peoples' capacity to cope with stress", says Nicholas Haan, FAO Chief Technical Advisor of FSAU. "The window of opportunity to avert disaster is quickly closing."
Somali authorities, civil society, and humanitarian actors urgently need to step up interventions so as to prevent a large scale disaster. A full range of response options must be considered, including food aid, cash assistance, water relief, herd survival actions (including destocking and protection of the breeding stocks), health assistance, and protection of vulnerable groups. UN agencies such as WFP, UNICEF, and FAO together with multiple local and international NGOs are urgently responding and will require the full support of the donor community and Somali authorities to effectively respond.
FSAU and FEWS NET will issue a detailed Technical Report on the post Deyr findings in the next couple of weeks.
For further information visit: http://www.fsausomali.org
For FEWS NET reports visit: http://www.fews.net