Recent data further confirms previous early
warnings of an imminent Humanitarian Emergency throughout Southern Somalia
(see FSAU Monthly Briefs for November
and December
2005). The Food Security Analysis Unit for Somalia (FSAU), implemented
by FAO and funded by the European Commission and USAID, together with FEWS
NET, projects that failed rains throughout Southern Somalia will lead to
the lowest Deyr harvest in over ten years. Rangelands are in very poor
condition, with livestock dying and pastoralists struggling to find water
and fodder. With the next rainy season not expected to provide relief until
June 2006, a preliminary estimate of up to 2 million people are likely
to be in either a Humanitarian Emergency and/or Acute Food and Livelihood
Crisis for at least the next six months. This is double the number of people
projected in August to be in need of assistance.
Somalia is experiencing a dangerous
confluence of factors that almost certainly will lead to rapidly plummeting
humanitarian conditions throughout Southern regions, including:
- This year's previous cereal harvest in July was also the worst in a decade, meaning: (1) combined annual cereal production will be the worst in ten years, probably around 25% of the long term average, and (2) the previous bad harvest means less food stocks and money are available to vulnerable groups to cope with further shocks.
- Current projections of extreme food and livelihood insecurity are in addition to the on-going Humanitarian Emergencies in Gedo and Lower Juba Regions -- the failed Deyr will both expand and make these crises more severe.
- Several areas have on-going resource-based conflicts, causing human displacement and death as well as disrupting markets and animal migration patterns. As yet unresolved tensions within the Transitional Federal Government, combined with reports of continued importations of military weapons, has the potential to lead to widespread civil conflict, which would further devastate humanitarian conditions-
- Humanitarian actors have limited access to some areas most critically in need of assistance. Further, the upsurge of piracy off the Somali coast limits food supply lines for both commercial and humanitarian imports.
- Acute malnutrition levels of Somalis throughout the area are already significantly above acceptable levels, with some areas having GAM rates of over 20%--the physiological capacity to resist further stress is limited. One feeding center in Gedo had a 50% increase in attendance from November to December.
- The Deyr rainy season is equally bad in the neighboring areas of Ethiopia and Kenya, which will greatly restrict migratory options and limit social support mechanisms.
Although the most severe Humanitarian Emergencies are expected in the South, both the Central and Northern Regions of Somalia are also experiencing Food and Livelihood Crises which require interventions.
"Already we have seen a positive uptake of previous early warning signals by the 'Somalia Community' (including UN agencies, NGOs, Donors and the TFG) who are ready to step-up interventions", says Nicholas Haan, Chief Technical Advisor of the FSAU. "Our concern now is that the global donor community seizes this window of opportunity to prevent images of mass starvation as we have seen in Niger and Sudan".
FSAU and partners are currently conducting detailed field assessments of crop production, rangeland conditions, nutrition, markets, and conflict throughout Somalia, and will provide detailed analysis of the food security implications in mid-January. However, adequate information is available now to urgently mobilize resources and step up interventions.
For FSAU reports, maps and more detailed information: www.fsausomali.org For FEWS NET reports: www.fews.net