Based on the Post Deyr 2006/07 Assessment, the Food Security Analysis Unit for Somalia (FAO/FSAU) and FEWSNET Somalia confi rm that despite serious fl ooding in November/December and confl ict in most regions of south and central Somalia during the month of December, the overall humanitarian situation has generally improved for the rural populations. Accordingly, the total population in need of humanitarian assistance has declined:
Decrease in the overall numbers of people requiring humanitarian assistance and livelihood support:
- from 1.8 million (June - December '06)
- to 990,000, of which 590,000 are in either Humanitarian Emergency or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and 400,000 are IDPs (January - June '07)
Of this 590,000 rural population in need of humanitarian assistance:
- 80% are in the drought affected regions of Gedo and Lower and Middle Juba regions, while 20% are in Bay, Bakool and Hiran regions
- Pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas are improving, but riverine areas are deteriorating (due to compounding impacts of consecutive seasons of fl oods and drought)
Overall Trends: For most of the rural population or Pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas (approximately 91% of total rural population and 67% of total population):
- Improved access to food and income
- Improved nutrition status with continuing improvements expected in next 6 months
- Recovery of livelihood assets (livestock, food stocks)
- Reductions in debt levels and distressed coping and improved dietary diversity
Contributing Factors:
- Rainfall: Deyr rains signifi cantly above normal (RFE >150-300% of LTM, widespread), second consecutive season of good rainfall (Gu '06 was also good in many areas).
- Crop Production: Very good Deyr '06/'07 cereal rainfed production (signifi cantly above normal), with overall cereal production above normal (113% PWA), second consecutive season of improved cereal production following the drought, and Annual Cereal Production is normal (101% of PWA).
- Livestock Production: Widespread exceptional pasture and water conditions throughout the country, very good body conditions for all livestock species, normal calving/kidding in the north and exceptional conception rates with high kidding/calving expected between February -May '07 in south/central, signifi cantly improved livestock prices (50-200% increases), signifi cantly increased purchasing power (trade between livestock and cereals), and high livestock exports (2006).
Of Greatest Humanitarian Concern:
1. Critical and Deteriorating Humanitarian situation of the Riverine populations in Juba, Gedo and Hiran regions
- Compounding impacts of the previous drought, severe fl ooding this season, limited food and income sources, loss of assets, critical and deteriorating nutrition situation, high morbidity levels, limited social support and coping capacity.
- Most of riverine population in need of humanitarian assistance (90% of 147,000) in the riverine areas of Juba and Gedo regions.
2. Pastoralists and Agro-pastoralist in drought affected areas of Gedo and Juba regions
- Improved humanitarian situation, but still several seasons needed to recover livelihood assets due to the signifi cant loss of livestock during the drought (30-60% of livestock)
3. Internally Displaced Populations (IDPs)
- Persistently poor nutrition (e.g. Bossaso and Mogadishu), limited access to basic amenities (food, shelter, water and sanitation), limited means of livelihoods, low resilience to shocks/hazards, and poor social support networks.
Risk Factors to Monitor
- Civil Insecurity and Confl ict - depending on nature, severity, spread and intensity could impact on access to markets (disrupt fl ow of goods & services) and production areas (access to agricultural land and rangelands); lead to increased food and non-food prices, population displacement, loss of assets, and reduced humanitarian space.
- Markets Supplies and Prices - cereal fl ows and prices between regions (from surplus to defi cit production areas), livestock markets (supply and prices) within Somalia and outside (NE Kenya and Gulf export markets), and off-season crop production.
- Human Morbidity Trends - trends in common and water borne diseases, especially in riverine areas (e.g. malaria, acute watery diarrhea).