Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET October 4 – October 10, 2012

1) Both anomalous seasonal rainfall and the northward position of the Inter-Tropical front during the past several months have favored breeding conditions for desert locusts over southeast Mauritania-western Mali, central Niger-eastern Mali, Chad, and east-central Sudan. With seasonal rains ending and as vegetation dries out, locusts are expected to concentrate and migrate towards the north as well as potentially into cropping areas in Mali and Niger.

2) Torrential rain from localized thunderstorms caused flash flooding in portions of northern and southern Somalia during the past week. During the next week, the potential for isolated, heavy rainfall remains high over portions of Somalia and eastern Ethiopia. This may trigger localized flooding in many pastoral areas in the region.

3) Several weeks of above-average and heavy rains across southern Nigeria and the release of water from dams located in Cameroon have led to widespread flooding across the region resulting in the closures of highways, displacement of local populations and damages to infrastructure. With heavy rain forecasted, the risk for additional flooding is elevated.

4) Anomalous moisture has resulted in another week of heavy rain across western portions of West Africa. With a numerous reports of flooding in the previous months, thirty-day rainfall surpluses greater than 50 mm and forecasted localized heavy rain, the potential for flooding exists.