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CRISIS OVERVIEW
Somalia is currently experiencing its 2025 Deyr rainy season, which typically occurs from October–December and plays an important role in Somalia’s food and water security (FEWS NET accessed 21/10/2025). Seasonal forecasts anticipate below-average Deyr precipitation and above-average temperature between October–December, which is expected to aggravate the drought (SMN 20/09/2025; ICPAC accessed 29/09/2025). These anticipated precipitation and temperature anomalies are partially attributed to the combined effects of La Niña, which started in October 2025, and the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another interannual climate variability phenomenon, which is expected to persist until the end of 2025 (FAO 06/10/2025; NOAA 03/11/2025; WMO 20/10/2025). The combination of La Niña and the negative IOD between October–December typically causes severe drought in the Horn of Africa (ICPAC 29/06/2025).
By July 2025, 2.5 million people across 26 districts were estimated to be moderately or severely impacted by drought, with all northern regions severely hit. In Somaliland only, more than 650,000 people have been affected (OCHA 18/08/2025). Forecasted below-average 2025 Deyr rains are likely to worsen drought conditions in the north, and extend their impacts to additional areas across central and southern Somalia.
The IPC estimates that 1.85 million children aged 6–59 months are expected to suffer acute malnutrition and need urgent treatment between July 2025 and June 2026, representing nearly half of all children in this age group in Somalia. This includes approximately 421,000 cases of children likely to suffer severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and 1.43 million children likely to suffer moderate acute malnutrition (MAM), representing a 12% increase in global acute malnutrition and a 5% increase in SAM compared to the same season last year. Notably, around 65% of the total acute malnutrition burden is concentrated in southern Somalia (IPC 23/09/2025).
Between June–September, 18 of the 47 assessed areas around the country were classified to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity (IPC 23/09/2025). This is further aggravated by protracted conflict and other factors related to scarce resources, which have led to displacements and the loss of 1.4 million livestock, severely undermining livelihoods and food security (WFP 08/04/2025; UN 26/02/2025). By September, the peak of the lean season in pastoral areas, food security had deteriorated across most of northern and central Somalia (FEWS NET 16/10/2025). The most affected areas were central Somalia (Galgaduud, Hiran, and Mudug), northern Somalia (Jeeh, Marooi, and Sahil) and southwest Somalia (Bakool, Bay, and Lower Shabelle) (IPC 23/09/2025).