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CRISIS IMPACT OVERVIEW
Heavy rains that began on 4 October 2023 have resulted in flash floods across Baidoa district, in Bay region, Southwest state, Somalia. The floods had affected more than 122,000 people (20,347 families) as at 23 October (OCHA 23/10/2023 and 07/10/2023). The most affected regions are Baidoa city and the surrounding low-lying areas (WVI 09/10/2023). As at 24 October, the flooding had killed three people (two from their house collapsing on 11 October), injured one, and led to four people missing in Baidoa, while one person had died in Galmudug state (ECHO 24/10/2023; OCHA 23/10/2023). Banadir, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Jubaland states have been experiencing floods from heavy rainfall since early October (OCHA 23/10/2023).
Makeshift shelters hosting more than 92,000 IDPs across 178 displacement sites in Baidoa city have been inundated, meaning secondary displacement for IDPs who will require humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs (OCHA 23/10/2023 and 07/10/2023). Displaced people have moved to higher ground and are sheltering in the vicinity of their settlements in low-lying areas (OCHA 07/10/2023). The majority of the displaced population in Baidoa were displaced by the impact of drought on their livelihoods and access to essential services (AA 12/10/2023; ACAPS 27/01/2023).
There is a critical need to relocate people whose shelters have been permanently destroyed and who remain in flood-prone areas (OCHA 23/10/2023). Other priority needs include shelter, NFIs, food, and WASH services. Although northern Somalia is forecast to have less cumulative rainfall than the south, the region has also already experienced some pockets of flooding, affecting some villages and damaging two schools, some hospitals, and two mosques (IFRC 14/10/2023). Localised areas of Somaliland and Puntland have also been affected. The water levels in Juba and Shabelle Rivers are expected to increase, leading to a high risk of flash floods because of potential localised heavy rains over western Bakool, central Gedo, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region (FAO 23/10/2023).
Somalia has an INFORM climate change risk score of 8.8/10, with a 9.3/10 flood exposure score and 8.8/10 vulnerability and lack of coping capacity score (EC accessed 24/10/2023). These mean that the country is susceptible to flooding but does not have the means to sufficiently respond to the impact of the hazard.
ANTICIPATED SCOPE AND SCALE
Historical analysis shows that El Niño tends to affect the country the most between September–December, with a decline in January. This means that above-normal rainfall will likely keep occurring until the end of 2023, increasing humanitarian needs (IFRC 14/10/2023).
Further flooding can be expected across Somalia as the Deyr season continues till December. There is a 70–85% probability of above-normal rainfall in October across southern Somalia, including Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Hiran, Lower Juba and Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, which will likely cause flash flooding (FAO 23/10/2023; IFRC 14/10/2023). The Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Centre climate outlook for the 2023 Deyr season forecasts an exceptionally high likelihood of ten consecutive rainy days, with cumulative amounts of more than 150mm, which can cause flash flooding (IFRC 14/10/2023). Central, northeastern, and the Horn of Africa areas of Somalia have a 65–80% probability of above-average rainfall, while northern areas have a 55% probability, with 900,000 people at risk of being affected.
Roughly 1.2 million people living in riverine areas across Somalia are anticipated to be affected by flooding (IRC 11/10/2023). World Vision has identified 256 flood hotspots in Gedo and Hirshabelle regions (WVI 09/10/2023).