• The Solomon Islands are warming and are expected to continue to experience warming trends throughout the 21st century. Future rates of warming are clouded by current models’ inability to simulate very localized changes but are likely to be in the range of 0.7°C–2.8°C depending on the 21st century rate of global emissions.
• Natural variability between years means short and medium-term rainfall changes are difficult to detect and project into the future. Further research is urgently required to develop models better suited to modelling the future climate of Pacific islands.
• The Solomon Islands has significant vulnerability to extreme rainfall events and in the context of uncertainty, disaster risk reduction is of critical importance.
• Sea-levels are rising faster than the global average. Submergence of the lowest-lying islands has already begun and threatens coastal communities. In some cases, nature-based adaptation such as coral reef and mangrove restoration may protect communities, in others hard defences or managed relocation may need to be considered.
• A very negative outlook is projected for the fisheries sector in the Solomon Islands, with potential reductions in the maximum catch potential of over 50%. These impacts represent a major threat to dietary health in poorer communities, national food security, and national income.
• The future of the cash and subsistence agriculture sector is uncertain and requires further study given its importance to the majority of rural households.
• The Solomon Islands face a large range of hazards which intersect with climate changes. In most cases fundamental social issues of poverty, inequality, and poorly planned development remain the biggest drivers of disaster risk.
• However, as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world, the Solomon Islands have a priority need for support to prevent significant damage and loss over the 21st century.