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CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD INSECURITY: OPTIONS FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE IN SIERRA LEONE
Abstract: Sierra Leone is among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the hazards of climate change. The interlinkages between climate shocks, elevated levels of poverty and food insecurity, and high dependency on rain fed agriculture suggest that climate strategies will need to be integrated with the social protection framework. Our simulations suggest that while a strategy of cash transfers to affected households, external trade liberalization or lowering the cost of mobility are good standalone policy responses to food insecurity, a combination of all three as a package is likely to be most effective.
A. Introduction
1. Sierra Leone is highly vulnerable to the negative impact of climate change. This vulnerability arises from its poor levels of adaptive capacity and low resilience of key economic sectors to climate change hazards. Weak social economic indicators, high dependency in rain-fed agriculture, low insurance penetration, and limited fiscal space are among the factors that undermine the country’s ability to adapt and that could potentially amplify the impact of climate change.
2. There is a risk that climate induced shocks could have a negative impact on social indicators, increasing the levels of food insecurity and undernourishment of the population. Poverty and food insecurity levels in the country are high even for regional standards and have increased considerably in the past few years. The impact of climate shocks on output could be significant as predominantly rain fed agriculture represents some 30 percent of GDP. Climate change can have a negative impact on food security through its impact on domestic agricultural productivity.
3. We estimate how climate shocks could affect food insecurity and assess the impact of different policy options leveraging a macro spatial model calibrated to reflect Sierra Leone’s key socioeconomic indicators. We use the model to assess the impact of shocks to domestic agricultural productivity. Results illustrate the country’s high level of vulnerability and indicate that this shock could have a persistent negative impact on output and food security indicators. Leveraging the model to assess the impact of different policy options, we conclude that boosting social protection programs, reducing the cost of food imports or lowering the cost of mobility could be important policy tools in building resilience to climate shocks.