Attachments
Executive Summary
The Sierra Leone Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) analyzes Sierra Leone’s socioeconomic development prospects in the context of climate change. It provides an overview of the climate and development risks facing Sierra Leone, models scenarios of select climate effects and adaptation, and proposes strategies to enhance resilience, steer the economy toward inclusive, low-carbon growth, and finance climate actions.
The consequences of a warming planet are gradual yet relentless. What begins as a series of hotter days evolves into extreme seasons and years. Every increment of warming will result in exponentially escalating hazards worldwide, but the severity of impacts will be unevenly distributed and hit countries like Sierra Leone the hardest.
Sierra Leone has already faced challenges in achieving meaningful economic development since the end of its civil war. The economy has at least shifted away from agricultural dominance, with agriculture’s (including forestry and fisheries) share of gross domestic product (GDP) declining to 30 percent and that of services and industry increasing to 42 percent and 26 percent, respectively, in 2023. Agriculture, which suffers from low productivity levels, employs almost half of the population. Most labor movements out of agriculture are absorbed by the services sector, particularly in informal trade and tourism, rather than into higher-productivity industries. Weak human development, poor infrastructure and services, low capital accumulation, and economic volatility have further constrained income growth, leaving over half of the population in poverty. While the country could reach lower-middle-income status by 2032 through an ambitious reform program, it must identify ways to sustain stable and inclusive growth under a changing climate.
Climate change has already redefined weather and climate extremes in the country. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ranks Sierra Leone among the 15 worst-affected economies with significant declines in GDP per capita due to climate effects between 1991 and 2010. Regardless of global emission trends, increases in temperatures are projected through the end of the century and beyond. Sierra Leone’s annual average temperature could rise to 28°C (from its baseline of 26.5°C) by 2050 under the most pessimistic climate scenario. Warmer temperatures, which are very closely tied to precipitation patterns and sea levels, raise the risk of erratic rainfall, severe flooding, and degraded land. While future rainfall trends are uncertain, Sierra Leone already experiences some of the highest annual precipitation levels in the world, averaging 2,653.4 mm. Both prolonged dry spells and intensified heavy rainfall events are projected in future climate scenarios.