Montenegrin lawmakers will hold a special session on 7 February to set the date for the republic's independence referendum, Parliament Speaker Ranko Krivokapic announced on Wednesday (18 January), following a proposal to that effect by President Filip Vujanovic.
An EU-brokered agreement of February 2003, under which the state union of Serbia-Montenegro was established, stipulated that either of the member states could opt out of the union after three years.
Quoting sources from Vujanovic's office, the AP reported that there must be at least a 45-day interval between the setting of the referendum date and the actual holding of the vote, which should also precede the republic's local elections, at the end of April.
The plebiscite is widely expected to take place between early and mid-April. Meanwhile, Montenegro's independence-minded ruling coalition and the opposition parties, which want the republic to remain part of the state union with Serbia, must agree on the rules of the referendum.
While acknowledging Montenegro's right to hold the referendum, the EU has stressed the need for clear rules that will leave no room for doubt concerning the legitimacy of the vote or its outcome.
Last month, the Council of Europe's Venice Commission issued its opinion on the compatibility of the existing referendum legislation in Montenegro with applicable international standards.
While finding the relevant Montenegrin laws to be in line with international standards, the commission recommended that EU-mediated negotiations be held between the ruling majority and opposition parties. The talks likely would be mediated by special EU envoy Miroslav Lajcak of Slovakia.
One of these questions is the specific majority required to ensure that the outcome of the referendum is accepted by all major political groups in Montenegro. "If a consensual solution is found on the majority required, this would strengthen the legitimacy of the result of the referendum and if this majority is reached, this would be a solid base for the independence of Montenegro," said the commission. "Other issues on which agreement should be sought in such negotiations include the wording of the referendum question, the rules on campaigning and funding of the campaigns, neutrality of the public media, conduct of the voting and related matters."
Recent opinion polls indicate that Montenegrin voters remain split almost down the middle on independence. However, the government of Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic appears confident that the majority will support the breaking up of the state union.
The opposition has suggested that at least 50 per cent of the 440,000 eligible voters in the republic should say "yes" to independence for Montenegro for the bid to succeed. Djukanovic and his pro-independence supporters believe that the approval of between 25 per cent and 40 per cent should suffice.