Country Stability and Conflictive Events (relative)
Average number of reported events per month: 126
Indicator description: see appendix
Risk Assessment:
- Against all odds, Serbia has experienced relative stability in recent months. The dissolution of the state union with Montenegro, the continued status talks with Kosovo and the instability of the government failed to seriously dent the stability of Serbia. Nevertheless, the past six months have been shaped by discussions on key issues regarding the Kosovo status rather than reforms. In particular, domestic stability and cooperation have been at the expense of relations with neighboring countries and international actors. As elections are to be held in the January and a (preliminary) decision on Kosovo is on the horizon, an increase in Conflictive Events seems probable. How much the stability will be affected will to a large extent depend on the timing of elections (before of after the Kosovo decision) and the nature of the decision for Kosovo. In the beginning of November, Serbia announced to hold elections on 21 January 2007. The same day, Martti Ahtisaari announced a postponement of the public release of his recommendations on the status of Kosovo.
- The key stabilizing event over the past three months has been the successful change of the constitution. A core promise since the end of the Milosevic regime by the different democratic governments, the absence of a new constitution had become a reminder of the failures of the democratic transition. The fact that the constitution passed parliament nearly unanimously and had the backing of most parties, including the main parliamentary parties, signaled a rarely-seen consensus in domestic politics. However, this stability has been problematic, as the substance and the procedure of the constitution were flawed (see analysis of Conflictive and Cooperative Domestic Events).
- The dissolution of the State Union has been a key event in recent months. Whereas the Montenegrin referendum on independence in May 2006 had been looming over the state even prior to its creation in 2002, the vote for independence took the Serbian government by surprise. The Serbian government proved reluctant to accept the outcome of the referendum and recognize Montenegro's independence and apparently had not planned for the eventuality of the state's dissolution. This ushered in a period of uncertainty regarding the transition of former state union establishments to Serbian institutions, in particular the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the army and the Defense Ministry. Other institutions, such as the Ministry for Human and Minority Rights were dissolved and only later replaced by some Serbian institutions. The fact that Serbia became an independent state as a result of the dissolution of the state union marks the establishment of the fourth state on the territory of Serbia within 15 years. The declaration of an independent Serbia did not, however, solicit a broad public response.
- The ongoing status talks over Kosovo have not had any destabilizing effects in domestic politics yet. Most political actors have clearly supported the intransigent approach of the government. Political parties which advocate a more flexible approach to the status negotiations are politically marginal. Divisions and tensions are likely to emerge once a decision on the status is taken. While no party advocated an open conflict over Kosovo, the Serb Radical Party (SRS) has called on declaring any independence of Kosovo 'occupation', suggesting a more aggressive opposition to such a status than other parties would advocate for.
- The Serbian government has been suffering from continuous instability over the past six months. First, the government has been unable to secure a parliamentary majority for the legal transfer of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense to the Serbian government from the state union, mostly the result of opposition by the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) to Vuk Draskovic, the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Secondly, government members from the small G17plus party have submitted their resignations on 1 October 2006 over the lack of progress in arresting indicted war criminal Ratko Mladic. Despite the resignation, the government members from G17plus remained in office pending parliamentary confirmation for more than a month, creating uncertainty over government stability. Despite these crises, the Serbian government has survived longer than the previous governments since 2000, resulting not least from the weakness of the parties in government and their reluctance to contest in elections and the opposition's (DS and SRS) lack of interest in taking power prior to a decision on Kosovo.
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