Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Wheat production estimated at above‑average level in 2024 supported by increased production volume ceiling set by government
- Low barley imports and high wheat production underpin below‑average forecast of cereal imports in 2024/25
- Food price inflation at low levels in 2024
Wheat production estimated at above‑average level in 2024 supported by increased production volume ceiling set by government
In 2024, wheat production is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes, more than double the five‑year average and 25 percent higher than the previous year, underpinned by the gradual increase in the production volume ceiling set by local authorities. The Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture (MEWA) allows only small farmers to cultivate either wheat or alfalfa hay for livestock feed. In order to induce farmers to plant more wheat than alfalfa, the government has increased significantly the procurement price of wheat. In April 2024, the government announced the procurement price of SAR 1 800/tonne (about USD 480/tonne) for domestic wheat grains, which was more than double the international price and 3 percent higher than previous year’s rate. Wheat plantings for the upcoming 2025 season began at the end of November 2024 and are expected to conclude in January 2025.
Low barley imports and high wheat production underpin below‑average cereal import forecast in 2024/25
Cereal import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 12 million tonnes, about 13 percent below the average. This is mainly driven by low barley imports, which are forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, about less than 50 percent below the average, underpinned by supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea and the growth of the domestic feed processing sector that encourages farmers to use locally processed animal feed, which is more cost‑effective than imported barley.
Wheat import requirements are forecast at 3.5 million tonnes, about 6 percent below the average, reflecting the 2024 above‑average domestic production which increased local supply.
Maize imports are forecast at 4.5 million tonnes, about 16 percent above the average, mainly due to the growing demand by the local poultry sector. Rice import requirements are projected at 1.5 million tonnes, about 13 percent above average due to the growth in the tourism sector, increase in labour force and to maintain adequate stock levels.
Food price inflation at low levels in 2024
The average food inflation rate has remained at about 1 percent for the first ten months of 2024. However, in October 2024, the national retail price of Maza rice surged by 6 percent year‑on‑year, reaching a record high level of SAR 8.40/kg, reflecting high international prices.