Likely average Season A harvests to help maintain favorable food access
Overall, the 2018 Season A harvest is expected to be average, despite some production deficits in the east. With existing income-earning opportunities and a favorable Season B rainfall forecast, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to continue countrywide through September 2018. However, some poor households in Kayonza, Kirehe, and Nyagatare districts in Eastern Province may already be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to below-average Season A production.
According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, January cereal prices atypically increased by more than five percent compared to December 2017 due to a combination of erratic rainfall and Fall Armyworm damages. However, with the expected steady, domestic supply of non-cereal crops and robust regional trade,staple food prices are likely to be relatively stable through September 2018.
According to UNHCR, as of January 31, 2018, Rwanda hosted about 174,000 refugees and asylum seekers, more than half Burundians. The monthly arrival rate of Burundian asylum seekers fell in January, putting average monthly arrivals at about 486 since November. WFP funding shortfalls persist, so refugees in camps continue to receive a quarter less in daily rations but can seek daily labor outside of the camps