Attachments
The ongoing Season B harvest has replenished food stocks in rural areas
KEY MESSAGES
• Despite shortfalls in bean and Irish potato production, the Season B harvest has increased food availability and income for most people in rural areas. In addition, the increased labor demand for Season C and Season A land preparation is likely to sustain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in rural areas. However, the number of people in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions is expected to remain atypically high during the primary lean season, from October to December.
• The forecasted below-average Season A rainfall from September to December and the increased cost of agricultural inputs are likely to reduce crop yields for Season C 2022 and Season A 2023. Increased food sales and price increases for supplemental and non-food items likely lead to early depletion of stocks and limited access to food.
• Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are likely to be sustained in Kigali City, driven by increased economic activities and income earning opportunities in 2022 compared to 2020 and 2021. However, high food prices will continue to constrain household purchasing power, especially among the urban poor facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions.
• The estimated 127,194 refugees and asylees in Rwanda as of July 31, 2022, are likely to remain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), with monthly food assistance likely preventing worse food insecurity outcomes. Informal petty trade and labor are common sources of income for the refugees benefiting from the growing economic activities in early 2022. The rising prices of food are outpacing the purchasing power of the household’s income and cash-based humanitarian assistance. Refugees are expected to be disproportionally affected by the economic challenges of high food and fuel prices, which will likely constrain demand for informal goods and services.