Summary
The severe food-security crisis that has been affecting parts of eastern and southern Rwanda since August 2000 continued to ease in December, thanks to the start of the bean harvest and to sustained WFP relief food distributions to the most vulnerable households. Although the official crop assessment report will not be available until late January, the assessment teams that visited prefectures across the country reported that bean production is expected to be good. Beans constitute an important staple food and the main source of protein in Rwanda. The other major staples: sweet potatoes, cassava, and bananas - are still in short supply following disappointing production, particularly in the areas most affected by rainfall shortages over the previous seasons. Food production for the now-ending season 2001 A therefore is likely to be slightly lower than that of 2000 A. At the same time, the other staples are gradually becoming more available. At present, no new food-security crisis appears to be emerging. Therefore, the estimated 267,000 people in need of emergency assistance projected in November 2000 should be revised downward.
While only small pockets of food insecurity remain in the country (including in the chronically food insecure prefectures of Butare and Gikongoro), high food insecurity is likely to continue in Gashora and Kanzenze Communes of Kigali Rural Prefecture in Bugesera Region up to at least July 2001. This food insecurity is due to reduced cultivation at the beginning of season A (September-January) due to a shortage of seeds. Unfortunately, this seed problem has not been entirely resolved for the coming season 2001 B (February-July). However, for parts of Kanzenze, there is hope for a significant recovery from the current agricultural and food crisis if rains are also favorable in season B.
Market prices have started falling in response to the improved food supply outlook. Compared to November 2000, the prices of beans and Irish potatoes decreased by 13 percent and 18 percent, respectively. Although the prices of banana, sweet potatoes, and cassava remained very high compared with December 1999 prices and did not decrease in December 2000 and early January 2001, they are likely to also start dropping in the coming weeks due to improving national and regional supplies. Large volumes of beans and bananas from Uganda are once again appearing on the Rwandan markets.
On December 15, WFP Headquarters in Rome approved the Emergency Operation Program (EMOP) prepared by WFP/Rwanda. The program, which has received contributions amounting to about one quarter of the US$6.3 million requested, was designed to help the regions most affected by drought. This EMOP continues to be an important program, even with the improved food-security outlook. Donors should support this EMOP, considering that WFP Rwanda had to borrow from its ongoing, insufficiently funded Protracted Relief and Recovery Program (PRRO) and from the Tanzanian relief program so it could intervene at the height of the crisis in November. In addition, WFP Rwanda needs to support a portion of Bugesera Region for longer than initially envisioned. Naturally, borrowed food must be restored to the PRROs. In view of incomplete funding and changing food-security levels in the country, WFP and its partners will need to review the emergency aid program to optimize the locations, timing, and duration of relief food distribution.
1. Review of Diminishing, Continuing, and Emerging Food Crises
1.1. Diminishing Food-Security Crises
Due to very favorable rainfall conditions, the food insecurity that had been experienced in the drought-affected prefectures of eastern and southeastern Rwanda (Kibungo, Kigali Rural, Umutara and the Mayaga Region of Butare and Gikongoro Prefectures) has continued to ease.
Rains in December exceeded the normal rainfall totals for that month (based on 1925-1989 data). Moreover, Figure 1 shows that this rainfall was very well distributed. This allowed crops to develop and mature. Farmers have started harvesting beans, an important staple food and the main source of protein in Rwanda. In most of the country, bean production is at its optimal level, subject to the constraints of poor soil quality in parts of the country and of low levels of fertilizer use. Although beans were planted late in the drought-affected prefectures of eastern and southeastern Rwanda (particularly in Kibungo, Kigali Rural and Umutara Prefectures and in the Mayaga Region of Butare and Gitarama Prefectures), the current rains should allow most of this crop to reach maturity. Due to this season’s favorable rainfall, the food insecurity that had been experienced in those prefectures is therefore also easing.
Perennial crops and pasture have benefited from the good rains, and the adverse impact of last season’s deficit rainfall is gradually disappearing. Sweet potatoes and cassava cuttings are still in short supply, particularly in the drought-affected areas, but cuttings are gradually becoming available mainly through farmers’ use of early-planted crops as a source of planting material.
In the communes outside Bugesera Region where a high proportion of households had to receive free food distribution in the last two months, only a few pockets of food insecurity remain.
1.2. Continuing Food-Security Crisis
Bugesera Region in Kigali Rural Prefecture constitutes the one exception to this improved situation. In this southern part of Rwanda, food insecurity remains high, and bean production will be low because of reduced cultivation resulting from a lack of seeds. Two communes, Gashora and Kanzenze, are the most affected (see FEWS NET Rwanda update of December 15, 2000). In these communes, households still rely excessively on the sales of their productive assets (such as goats, the price of which is still very cheap) to buy their food. However, most of Kanzenze is poised to transit out of the current food crisis, especially if the rainfall in season B is also favorable.
The rainfall forecast for the coming season should be issued during the course of the next regional climate forecast forum scheduled for February 12-16, 2001 in Tanzania.
1.3. Emerging Food-Security Crises
At the present time, no new food-security crisis is emerging.
2. National Food-Security Conditions and Prospects
2.1. Current Food-Security Status
As described in Section 1, there was a marked alleviation of the existing food insecurity in December, with the exception of parts of Bugesera Region (section 4). However, sweet potatoes and cassava are still in short supply, mainly due to a shortage of planting material at the beginning of the season. This is critical because sweet potatoes and cassava provide most of the food energy in Rwanda. Farmers now have to wait for the crops planted in October to grow big enough so that they can cut planting material to resume planting. This will certainly delay production, but the staggered planting may have a positive result by providing a steadier supply later in the year. The domestic supply of bananas is also deficient, but plantations are recovering and should begin producing again in April. To partly offset the present shortage of root crops and bananas, a good maize production would be welcome. Maize is still a relatively minor cereal in Rwanda. Its production is very good in the high potential areas (the northwestern region and Cyangugu Prefecture) and relatively good in other areas.
Market prices have responded to an improved food supply in the country and in the Great Lakes Region. As Figure 2 shows, the prices of beans and Irish potatoes decreased significantly in December. Compared to November 2000, the national average prices of beans and Irish potatoes fell by 13 percent and 18 percent, respectively. In remote markets of Gisenyi, northwest Rwanda, the price of Irish potatoes, which at 23 RWF/kg in January 2000 was thought not to cover the costs of production, has now dropped to 22 RWF/kg. The price of sorghum also decreased even though farmers are still planting because season 2001 A had started relatively late.
The prices of sweet potatoes and cassava are still higher than the same period last year, but the price of sweet potatoes seemed to be stabilizing in December. As the market anticipates more fields of sweet potatoes to start producing in late February/early March 2001, these prices should begin to fall too.
The prices of cooking bananas were still rising in late December 2000 and early January 2001. It is hoped that an improved domestic and regional supply in the second quarter (along with a more sustained supply of their substitutes, cassava, and sweet and Irish potatoes) will push prices downward for those who rely on the market for supplies.
2.2. Food-Security Outlook
The field phase of a joint MINAGRI/PASAR-EU/FAO/WFP and FEWS NET crop production forecast was completed on December 30, 2000 and the first debriefing meeting took place on January 4, 2001. The final report is not expected until late January, but the following conclusions can already be drawn:
- Across the country, the food and nutritional situation has improved over the last 3 months because farmers are now harvesting beans;
- Because of the good rainfall, seasonal crops such as beans, peas, and maize did well, but the effect of last season’s severe rain shortage is still strongly felt on non-seasonal crops such as cassava and banana. Before the conclusion of the assessment exercise, most members of the joint evaluation team privately think that this season’s crop production is slightly lower than the corresponding season of 2000;
- Bean production in the "drought-affected" regions of Eastern and Southern Rwanda is relatively good where acreage had not significantly been reduced. However, pockets of food insecurity will remain (including in the chronically food-insecure prefectures of Butare and Gikongoro Prefectures);
- The assessment mission may recommend a reduction of free food distributions in some areas. However, it will probably recommend a sustained assistance to Bugesera Region, in particular for Kanzenze and Gashora Communes. WFP had included them in another half-ration distribution in December, but in view of the agency’s shortage of food and of the season’s harvests, the next distribution was postponed to mid-February. This may prove not feasible due to the high food insecurity faced by these two communes. The population living there is estimated at 120,000 people, of which about a third has been receiving emergency food assistance for the last two months.
The food supply outlook seems good for nearby regions of countries neighboring Rwanda, with the exception of Burundi. In particular, the crop production in Western Uganda, which was low due to poor rainfall over the past several seasons, is now steadily recovering. Already, supplies of Ugandan beans and cooking bananas to Kigali Town far exceed those coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In contrast to this optimistic outlook, the team that visited Bugesera Region in Kigali Rural Prefecture reported a worsened situation in Kanzenze and Gashora Communes (see FEWS NET/Rwanda Update of December 15, 2000). It is believed that in these communes, a significant number of people will need some free food distribution up to at least July 2001, as the expected production will be low.
It is worth noting that a relapse to another food crisis is always possible, especially in the drought-affected areas. Such a relapse could happen if the harvest of sweet potatoes expected to start in late February/early March is disappointing and if season 2001 B rainfall is insufficient or poorly distributed.
3. Hazard Information
Although no outbreak of armyworms (a very harmful caterpillar to young cereal crops) has occurred at this period, this pest is causing heavy damage in Tanzania. The crop protection service of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Forestry is preparing to efficiently control the pest if the need arises in Rwanda.
Soil erosion is a major problem for the Rwandan environment and for agricultural production. According to the crop assessment teams, erosion was particularly severe in northwestern Rwanda. Although its impact is essentially of long-term rather than immediate concern, the team reported a crop loss of up to 65 percent in the worst affected zones of Cyeru Commune in Ruhengeri Prefecture.
In the northwest, the aggravation of poverty caused 18 months ago by insurgency continues to be felt. In addition to causing population displacement and disrupting economic activities, insurgents looted small animals, especially goats. These goats would now be used as a source of alternative revenues and manure. The lack of manure has badly affected yields in the highly weathered, acidic soils of parts of the Gisenyi and Kibuye Prefectures.
The end of the year brought much good news about civil security. Most recently, some 75 Rwandan insurgents and their Congolese collaborators operating across the border in North Kivu (DRC) laid down their arms. In addition, during 2000, about 15,000 Rwandans who had been held hostage in Congo by the insurgents were freed by the Rwandan army and were able to return home.
In the economic sector, good news was reported in two areas at the end of the year: 1) outstanding Rwandan Government foreign debt was slashed by about 71 percent (in net present value terms), and; 2) the Government decided to pay all domestic public debt that had been accumulating last year. Debt relief of US$810 million provided within the World Bank’s and International Monetary Fund’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative will take effect after the Government satisfactorily finalizes its poverty-reduction strategy paper. This debt relief will allow important savings to be channeled to poverty-alleviation programs. The payment of domestic debts should revive formal economic activity, which last year had been crippled by Government payment delays.
4. Food Insecurity Persists in Bugesera Region
As described in section 1.2, Bugesera Region continues to face severe food insecurity, especially in Kanzenze and Gashora Communes of Kigali Rural Prefecture. In its debriefing meeting, the crop assessment team that visited Kanzenze Commune said that this season’s production would be very poor, as acreage plummeted due to lack of seeds. The team estimated that about one-third of normal acreage had been cultivated.
More coordinated efforts by the Government, donors, and NGOs are needed to overcome the seed shortage problem, but it is almost too late for the coming Season B (February-July). Some maize and bean seeds were distributed early this season, but a portion of these seeds was consumed as food or sold to generate cash for other basic needs.
Under a USAID/Rwanda financing, Gitarama Prefecture provided 2 million cassava cuttings (of which 0.8 million went to Kigali Rural, 0.6 million to Kibungo, and 0.6 million to Umutara Prefectures). Unfortunately, a portion of these cuttings was not used in some areas. Partly due to fear of introducing pests and diseases with cuttings, the importation of cuttings from Uganda is now suspended. Coordinated efforts are still needed to avert worsening of the situation in Bugesera and to foster a rapid recovery.
The food and nutritional situation in Bugesera calls for close monitoring. If the situation appears to decline further, response plans will need to be rapidly devised and implemented, ideally within a Government-led institution specifically entrusted with early warning, contingency planning, and disaster mitigation. FEWS NET, the European Union, FAO and WFP are ready to help strengthen such an institution, which the Government appears also to be willing to put in place.
5. Follow-up on WFP/Rwanda Food Supply Problems
The appeal for the EMOP 6318, approved on December 15, 2000, has received some pledges:
- $0.6 million from Germany;
- 462 MT of pulses from a multilateral donation through WFP Headquarters; and
- a second multilateral WFP donation of $1.0 million (expected soon).
These pledges are encouraging but fall short of the estimated need of 13,216 MT of food, for an estimated total cost of $6.3 million.
If fully financed, the WFP/Rwanda EMOP would at last replenish the depleted food supply within the "relief and recovery program," from which food was withdrawn in November to start relief in drought-affected areas before the appeal was even prepared. WFP Rwanda plans to readjust the EMOP to extend the assistance to parts of Bugesera Region beyond the 3 months initially envisaged.
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