Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Area planted with 2025 wheat and barley crops estimated at below-average level
- Slightly below-average cereal production obtained in 2024
- Above-average cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25 marketing year
Area planted with 2025 wheat and barley crops estimated at below-average level
Planting of 2025, mostly irrigated, wheat and barley crops, for harvest next June, concluded last November. The area planted with both crops is estimated to be below the five-year average due to excessive soil moisture at planting time, following heavy rains in October and November 2024, especially in southern areas where about 40 percent of wheat and 85 percent of barley are grown. Improved weather conditions since in December 2024 favoured crop germination and establishment of crops that, as of early February 2025, were in winter dormancy phase.
Weather forecasts point to below-average precipitation amounts in the main cereal producing southern areas between February and April 2025, associated with the ongoing La Niña event. If this forecast materializes, yields of wheat and barley crops grown in rainfed areas may be negatively affected. In addition, if snowfall is reduced in February and early March 2025 would limit snow cover, making crops susceptible to frost kill and reducing soil moisture in the spring that normally comes from snow melting.
Slightly below-average cereal production obtained in 2024
The 2024 cropping season concluded last October, and aggregate cereal production is estimated at 5 million tonnes, slightly below the average level.
Production of paddy, which accounts for the bulk of the country’s cereal output, is officially estimated at a below-average level of 4.8 million tonnes. Area planted with rice has gradually declined since 2002, amid government’s efforts to encourage the production of other crops, including soybeans, in response to the decline in domestic rice consumption. Production of maize is estimated at an average level of 89 000 tonnes. Production of barley is officially estimated at about 71 000 tonnes, almost 30 percent below average, mainly due to reduced plantings and yields on account of excessive rainfall amounts at planting time and early stages of crop growth, coupled with frost damages in March 2024.
Above-average cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25 marketing year
Total cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at an above‑average level of 16.9 million tonnes. Imports of maize, that account for the largest share of total cereal imports, are projected at an above-average level of 11.8 million tonnes, driven by the steady demand of the feed industry, amid rising livestock numbers. Wheat imports are forecast at 4.5 million tonnes, slightly above the average, reflecting strong demand of high-quality wheat for milling. In calendar year 2025, rice imports are forecast at 460 000 tonnes.