According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA), at 1500 HRS UTC+7 of 31 Oct 2020, the eye of Typhoon GONI (local name "ROLLY") was located based on all available data at 345 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (14.5 °N, 127.3 °E).
Based on PAG-ASA, which follows the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standard for classifying tropical cyclones (using 10-minute average of maximum sustained winds), GONI remains a “Typhoon” and is equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. On the other hand, GONI is a “Super Typhoon” based on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), which uses 1-minute maximum sustained winds as basis, and is equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane.
The cyclone has maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h and is moving West Southwestward at 25 km/h (PAG-ASA) and is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours (JTWC). However, the storm's actual position may shift significantly over the next few hours. PAG-ASA forecasts GONI to remain as a typhoon as it passes over Catanduanes/Camarines provinces, while JTWC forecasts GONI to make landfall within the next 24 hours as a Category 5 hurricane, along the shores of/near Camarines Norte.
An estimated 35.7 million people (6.74 million households) and $232 billion (USD) of infrastructure (total replacement value) are potentially exposed to moderate to severe damaging winds (with damage expected closer to the shores).
According to PDC-Global, winds that may potentially cause catastrophic damage can be expected in the typhoon’s path. Storm surge of up to 6 m can be expected in the coasts of Camarines provinces and up to 4.6 m in the coasts of Catanduanes and Quezon provinces. It is estimated that the typhoon will bring 230-300 mm of rainfall in the regions of Metro Manila, Bicol, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon.
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) has issued advisories for potential lahar and mudflow for areas near the following volcanoes: (1) Mayon in Bicol Region, (2) Taal in CALABARZON, and (3) Pinatubo in Central Luzon.
Response Capacity of the Philippines:
- The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Operations Center maintains its RED Alert Status and is continuously monitoring and ensuring the dissemination of advisories; Pre-emptive evacuation is currently on-going
- DSWD Relief Capacity: Standby Funds: ~6.2 million USD; Family Food Packs: ~252K (~2.3 million USD); Other Food Items: ~3.8 million USD; and Non-Food Items: ~5.8 million USD
The AHA Centre is on heightened preparedness for potential response and is coordinating with the NDRRMC Philippines; the AHA Centre shall continue to monitor the situation for further development and will issue necessary updates.