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Philippines
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According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA), at 1500 HRS UTC+7 of 31 Oct 2020, the eye of Typhoon GONI (local name "ROLLY") was located based on all available data at 345 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (14.5 °N, 127.3 °E).
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Based on PAG-ASA, which follows the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standard for classifying tropical cyclones (using 10-minute average of maximum sustained winds), GONI remains a “Typhoon” and is equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. On the other hand, GONI is a “Super Typhoon” based on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), which uses 1-minute maximum sustained winds as basis, and is equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane.
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The cyclone has maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h and is moving West Southwestward at 25 km/h (PAG-ASA) and is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours (JTWC). However, the storm's actual position may shift significantly over the next few hours. PAG-ASA forecasts GONI to remain as a typhoon as it passes over Catanduanes/Camarines provinces, while JTWC forecasts GONI to make landfall within the next 24 hours as a Category 5 hurricane, along the shores of/near Camarines Norte.
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An estimated 35.7 million people (6.74 million households) and $232 billion (USD) of infrastructure (total replacement value) are potentially exposed to moderate to severe damaging winds (with damage expected closer to the shores).
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According to PDC-Global, winds that may potentially cause catastrophic damage can be expected in the typhoon’s path. Storm surge of up to 6 m can be expected in the coasts of Camarines provinces and up to 4.6 m in the coasts of Catanduanes and Quezon provinces. It is estimated that the typhoon will bring 230-300 mm of rainfall in the regions of Metro Manila, Bicol, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon.
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The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) has issued advisories for potential lahar and mudflow for areas near the following volcanoes: (1) Mayon in Bicol Region, (2) Taal in CALABARZON, and (3) Pinatubo in Central Luzon.
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Response Capacity of the Philippines:
- The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Operations Center maintains its RED Alert Status and is continuously monitoring and ensuring the dissemination of advisories; Pre-emptive evacuation is currently on-going
- DSWD Relief Capacity: Standby Funds: ~6.2 million USD; Family Food Packs: ~252K (~2.3 million USD); Other Food Items: ~3.8 million USD; and Non-Food Items: ~5.8 million USD
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The AHA Centre is on heightened preparedness for potential response and is coordinating with the NDRRMC Philippines; the AHA Centre shall continue to monitor the situation for further development and will issue necessary updates.