OVERVIEW: Tropical Disturbance (TD) 18W intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) at 1300 HRS UTC+7 and into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) today as of 1900 HRS UTC+7 (6 September). As of 1800 HRS UTC+7, the centre of STS Conson (locally named "Jolina") was estimated based on all available data to be 30 km East Northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (11.0°N, 126.0°E) according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
INTENSITY: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 994 hPa; Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 150 km from the center
MOVEMENT: Westward Northwestward at 15 km/h. STS Conson will make its first landfall over Eastern Samar – Northern Samar area tonight or tomorrow early morning, then second landfall over Catanduanes tomorrow afternoon and third over the eastern section of Central Luzon on the morning of 9 September. STS Conson will re-emerge over the West Philippine Sea by the evening of 9 September.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) o No. 2 - Eastern Samar, eastern portion of Northern Samar, northeastern portion of Samar o No. 1 - Sorsogon, Albay, Ticao Island, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, southeastern portion of Camarines Norte (Luzon); Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, the rest of Samar, the rest of Northern Samar (Visayas); Dinagat Islands, Siargao, and Bucas Grande Islands (Mindanao).
HAZARDS: Heavy rainfall - moderate to heavy rains at times intense rains over Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Sorsogon. Moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region and the rest of Visayas. Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flash flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps; Severe winds - damaging gale-force winds for areas under TCWS no. 2 and strong winds for areas under TCWS no.1.
OUTLOOK: Due to the uncertainty of the intensity forecast, intensification into typhoon is not ruled out. The highest possible TCWS that may be issued is TCWS no. 3. (PAGASA).
FORECAST: STS Conson is forecast to slightly intensify until the morning of Thursday. It is seen to slightly weaken as it moves over the rugged terrain of Northern-Central Luzon area and may intensify into a typhoon by Saturday while moving over the West Philippine Sea (PAGASA).
EXPOSURE: It is estimated that 145,196 people, 27,395 households, and $528 million (USD) worth of infrastructure are potentially exposed to MODERATE to SEVERE damaging winds (with damages expected closer to the shore) (PDC-Global).
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.