Tropical Cyclone 92W (LANNIE), Philippines, Flash Update #1

Situation Report
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• OVERVIEW: Tropical Depression 92W (LANNIE) is now over The Canigao channel and heading towards Camotes Sea; The centre of the eye of TD 92W (LANNIE) was located based on all available data, over the coastal waters of Maasin City, Southern Leyte (10.1°N, 124.7°E) (PAGASA).

• INTENSITY: Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1006 hPa; Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 200 km from the centre.

• MOVEMENT: West Northwestward at 20 km/h

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) in effect: at most TCWS no.1 – Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours (refer to map for TCWS issuance)

• HAZARDS: moderate to heavy with at times intense rains, scattered flooding and raininduced landslides in susceptible areas as identified in hazard maps; Strong winds (i.e., strong breeze to near gale conditions) with occasional gusts, especially in the areas where TCWS#1 (PAGASA).


o Landfall: Liloan, Southern Leyte (7:30 HRS UTC+8); Padre Burgos, Southern Leyte (8:00 HRS UTC+8)

o 92W will move generally west northwestward over the Visayas archipelago until tonight or tomorrow early morning, when it is expected to emerge over the Sulu Sea and cross the Cuyo archipelago. 92W may make another landfall in the vicinity of northern Palawan or Calamian Islands tomorrow morning before emerging over the West Philippine Sea.

o Throughout this entire period, 92W is forecast to remain within tropical depression category, with a possibility of slight intensification once over the Sulu Sea or West Philippine Sea. By late Tuesday through early Thursday morning, 92W is forecast to move generally northwestward over the West Philippine Sea. Improvement in environmental conditions will allow the depression to intensify. It may likely be upgraded into a tropical storm by Wednesday early morning.

o 92W is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning, turn more north northwestward while heading towards southern mainland China. 92W will continue intensifying during this period and may reach severe tropical storm category by Saturday morning.

• The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates