Philippines: Typhoon Nock-Ten Information Bulletin (25 December 2016)

Situation Report
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This bulletin is being issued for information only, and reflects the current situation and details available at this time. After the typhoon’s landfall, and based on assessments, the Philippine Red Cross (PRC) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) will determine whether external support is required.

The situation

As of 1700 on 25 December, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that Typhoon Nock-Ten (locally known as Nina) has maintained its strength and continues to pose a serious threat to Bicol Region. The summary details from PAGASA are as follows:

  • Location of eye/center: At 4:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon "NINA" was located based on all available data including Virac doppler radar at 65 km East Southeast of Virac, Catanduanes (13.4°N, 124.8°E)

  • Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 255 kph (Typhoon Category 3, 178-208kph).

  • Forecast Movement: Forecast to move West at 15 kph

  • Landfall: It is expected to make landfall over Catanduanes this evening (Dec. 25), then will cross Albay, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Southern Quezon, Laguna, Batangas and Cavite. Based on the current movement, the eye of the typhoon should make landfall between 2000h to 2400h this evening on the island of Catanduanes. On 26th December morning, it is predicted to be in the vicinity of Gumaca, Quezon.

  • Rainfall: Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within its 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

  • Storm surge: Storm surge height of up to 2.5 meters is possible over the coastal areas of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, Sorsogon and Catanduanes. Open sea wave heights are 1.25 to 4 meters, with PAGASA also warning against sea travel over the seaboards of northern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, southern Luzon, and the Visayas.

  • Exit: Nock-Ten is expected to exit PAR on 28 December.

The typhoon has slowed since yesterday and is now tracking an average of 15kph. After Bicol, Nock-Ten is forecast to strike the heavily populated heartland of the main island of Luzon including Manila. Its intensity increased yesterday and has since remained relatively constant with maximum sustained winds of 185 kph according to PAGASA. This equates to a Category 3 Typhoon in accordance with the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. However, it should be noted the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre model shows the Typhoon at the upper end of a Category 4 Typhoon.

The level of rainfall is now considered one of the highest risks. Rainfall is estimated to be moderate to heavy with the area affected increased to within 500km of the typhoon’s eye. Its outer rain bands are already affecting Northern Samar and most of Bicol Region. Some weather stations are predicting at the point of landfall on Catanduanes Island, there will be up to 122mm of rain between 1700 and 2000 today.

As such, there is a significant risk of flash floods in uplands and flooding for low-lying areas in the Bicol region, Southern Luzon, Central Luzon and Metro Manila particularly in low lying areas of Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas and Valenzuela. Flood risk maps are available from PAGASA which show the probable flood areas for corresponding flood return periods