A. Situation analysis Description of the disaster Moving west-northwest from the Pacific, Typhoon Maysak (locally known as Chedeng) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 1 April 2015 as a Category 5 typhoon. However, it has since weakened slightly and is currently packing maximum sustained winds of 165 kph near its centre and gusts of up to 200 kph, moving at a slow pace of 15 kph. According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), as of 7:00 am (Philippine time), 3 April 2015, the typhoon was located 765 km East of Virac, Catanduanes at coordinates 14.0°N, 131.3°E.
Based on current reported models of the storm’s track, it is projected that Maysak will make landfall over the eastern coast of Aurora-Isabela area in central Luzon as a Category 1 or 2 typhoon on Sunday 5 April 2015. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) is reporting the possibility of flashfloods over low-lying areas and landslides along mountain slopes. While good weather is expected to hold through Friday, 3 April 2015, with some isolated rain showers or thunderstorms across Luzon, rain, gusty winds and stormy weather are expected over the Bicol region, Central and Northern Luzon (including Metro Manila).
The anticipated path of Typhoon Maysak crosses over the heavily populated Luzon island, and its diameter could affect both coastal and inland communities through torrential rain, damaging winds, rough seas, heavy swells, coastal flooding, flash flooding and landslides on higher terrain. The NDRRMC issued a Red Alert at noon on 1 April 2015 while PAGASA is expected to raise public storm warning signals as the typhoon nears land mass. PAGASA has issued a gale warning, with strong to gale-force winds expected to affect the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Visayas. Fishing populations, ferry commuters and holiday makers – especially during this holiday period for the largely Catholic nation in observance of the Holy Week/Easter season – in areas covered by the gale warning have been advised to be alert for possible evacuation.
Considering the potential impact that Typhoon Maysak could have on the Philippines, the Philippine Red Cross (PRC) has requested support from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in its potential emergency response. Based on an analysis of the situation and information available from relevant sources at this time, the IFRC is making an allocation from its Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) to enable the PRC to conduct an immediate response when safety conditions allow. The funds will enable the National Society to mobilize pre-positioned relief supplies to areas under threat for immediate distribution to affected people and also to facilitate the deployment of rapid assessment teams to quickly determine needs of the affected population - which is crucial in informing the development of a detailed action plan.
Based on further information and rapid assessments to be carried out after Maysak strikes, and when safety conditions allow, additional assistance may be requested through the IFRC international disaster response mechanisms.