Philippines: Tropical Storm Kammuri - Information Bulletin

The situation

According to the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) as of 10:00 local time on 29 November 2019, Tropical Storm (TS) Kammuri is approximately 1,430 km east of the southern Luzon, moving northwest. PAGASA reports that Kammuri currently has maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near the centre and gustiness of up to 170 kph. Longer range models predict it could intensify to a category 4 typhoon.

On entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), which is estimated between 1 and 2 December 2019, it will be locally named “Tisoy”. Tropical wind signal #1 may be raised over the eastern portion of Region V (Bicol) on 1 December 2019. The trajectory of the weather disturbance has altered over the last 24 hours, but is currently forecasted to make landfall on 3 December 2019, in either Quezon or Camarines provinces, before traversing across the Luzon landmass and surrounding islands.

From 26 November 2019, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has been issuing advisory warnings. As the weather system comes closer and more information on the expected impact becomes available, the NDRRMC will begin to disseminate public warnings on flooding and landslides.

There are concerns that the weather system could cause damage in communities across Regions V (Bicol) and IVA (Calabarzon), which have been struck in recent years notably by Typhoon Melor (2015, MDRPH020), Typhoon Nock-Ten (2016, MDRPH023) and Tropical Storm Usman (2019, MDRPH030). The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) has reported that more than 27.5 million people could be exposed to the effects to this weather disturbance (Category 1 or above), and has issued a “Red Alert” rating of 2.5, predicting a possible “Medium” level of humanitarian impact.

Strong winds, and storm surges are expected, and rainfall can cause flooding and trigger landslides, resulting in casualties, as well as damages to crops livelihoods, livestock, infrastructure and housing.

TS Kammuri will become the Philippines 20th tropical cyclone in 2019.