ReliefWeb

A. Situation analysis

Description of the disaster

On the evening of 27 October 2020, a tropical depression developed over the Western Pacific Ocean, Northwest of Guam. Once inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) it will be given local name “Goni” (Goni). As per the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) bulletin at 11.00 am local time today (29 October 2020), Tropical Storm Goni has intensified into a severe tropical storm while moving westward, with a maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour the centre and gustiness of up to 115 kilometers per hour. It is forecasted to enter the eastern boundary of the PAR this afternoon or evening. It is forecasted to move generally westward by Saturday evening, then west-north westward by Sunday as it moves towards Quezon - Aurora area before making landfall on Sunday morning, 1 November 2020. The tropical storm is forecasted to reach typhoon Category 3 within 24 hours and will continue to intensify while moving over the Philippine Sea. As it moves towards eastern sections of Central Luzon (Region III) and Southern Luzon (Region IVa, Region V), it may bring heavy rains over those areas starting this Friday (30 October 2020). Access this report to see the map of areas expected to be affected by the Tropical Storm Goni.

Tropical Storm Goni will take a similar path as of Tropical Storm Quinta (international name; Molave), which will increase the vulnerability of the people affected. According to National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) Sitrep No. 4, due to Tropical Storm Quinta, 16 people died, 57,742 families were affected and 16,830 families are still being served inside 916 evacuation centers and left at least PHP 429.7 million damage to agriculture and infrastructure.

The NDRRMC has already directed regional counterparts to undertake precautionary measures in their areas of responsibility, including initiating pre-emptive evacuation of families in low-lying and mountainous areas if the situation warrants.

The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) has reported that for Tropical Storm Goni, 6,527,303 people will be exposed to a Category 1 (120km/h), or higher typhoon and has issued an “Red Alert” rating of 2.5, predicting a possible “High” level of humanitarian impact. According to GDACS current data on Tropical Storm Goni, its current strength is of hurricane/typhoon is less than 118 kilometers per hour while its current maximum sustained winds is 130 kilometers per hour, potentially reaching up to 241 kilometers per hour in the next five days.

In addition to the tropical storms, La Niña is present, and most models suggest moderate to strong La Niña is likely to persist until April 2021. La Niña is usually associated with above normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and early months of the following year. The rain forecast for the whole country during the months of November and December will be above normal rainfall conditions. The water level in dams and river basins are also forecasted to reach above normal level. Hence possible flooding and landslides could be expected.

According to PAGASA GONI will be the 18th tropical storm for 2020 to enter PAR. It would also be the 5th tropical storm for October alone. It is expected there will be a further one to three typhoons in November and two or three more in December 2020.

Considering the current COVID-19 situation in the country, PRC has incorporated COVID-19 guidelines into its response protocols. These measures will limit the risks of spreading the virus and protecting those involved (staff, volunteers and relief item recipients). These measures will be incorporated into this DREF operation.

In order to be better prepared for the potential impact of tropical storm, and to allow the National Society to support local government preventive evacuation and initiate immediate disaster response, PRC with the support from IFRC is requesting the activation of an imminent crisis DREF allocation.

This imminent DREF will support the mobilization of assets, stocks and personnel (staff and volunteers), personal protective equipment (PPE), preventative evacuations, rapid needs assessments, and distribution of essential household and emergency shelter items if required. The Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) and operations budget will be revised as the situation evolves.