Philippines: Tropical Cyclone GONI - Information bulletin

Situation Report
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The situation

On the evening of 27 October 2020, a tropical depression developed over the Western Pacific Ocean,
Northwest of Guam. Once inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) it will be given local name “Rolly” (GONI). As per the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) bulletin at 11.00 am local time today (29 October 2020), that Tropical Storm GONI intensified into a sever tropical storm while moving westward, with a maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 115 kilometers per hour. It is forecasted to move generally westward by Saturday evening, then west-northwestward by Sunday as it moves towards Quezon - Aurora area before making landfall over the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas this weekend Sunday morning, 1 November 2020. It is forecasted to reach typhoon Category 3 within 24 hours and will continue to intensify while moving over the Philippine Sea. As it moves towards eastern sections of Central and Southern Luzon, it may bring heavy rains over those areas starting this Friday (30 October 2020).

Tropical Storm GONI will take a similar path as of Tropical Storm Quinta (international name; Molave), which will increase the vulnerability of the people affected. According to National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) Sitrep No. 4, due to Tropical Storm Quinta where 16 people died, 57,742 families were affected and 16,830 families are still being served inside 916 evacuation centers and left at least PHP 429.7 million damage to agriculture and infrastructure.

The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) has reported that for Tropical Storm GONI, 6,485,007 people will be exposed to a Category 1 (120 kilometers per hour), or higher, and has issued “Red Alert” rating of 2.5, predicting a possible “High” level of humanitarian impact.

In addition to the tropical storms, La Niña is present, and most models suggest moderate to strong La Niña is likely to persist until April 2021. La Nina is usually associated with above normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and early months of the following year. The rain forecast for the whole country during the months of November and December will be above normal rainfall conditions. The water level in dams and river basins are also forecasted to reach above normal level. Hence possible flooding and landslides could be expected.

According to PAGASA, Tropical Storm GONI will be the 18th tropical storm for 2020 to enter PAR. It would also be the 5th tropical storm for October alone. It is expected there will be a further one to three typhoons in November and two or three more in December 2020.