Philippines: Impact of El Niño Snapshot (As of 25 March 2024)

El Niño remains active and expected to persist until May 2024. However, climate models suggest a transition to neutral conditions in May-June with a likelihood for La Niña to develop (62% chance) between June-July-August 2024. With this development, the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to La Niña Watch. Based on PAGASA Forecast Rainfall condition for April-May, most part of the country will continue to experience way below to below normal rainfall.

PAGASA reported that 37 provinces are now experiencing drought condition (3 consecutive months of way below normal rainfall condition/more than 60% reduction from rainfall average), 22 provinces with dry spell (3 consecutive months of below normal rainfall condition/21%-60% reduction from rainfall average) and 12 provinces with dry condition (2 consecutive months of below nornal rainfall condition).