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TROPICAL CYCLONE DOKSURI
● OVERVIEW: As of 24 July 2023, at 1600 UTC+7, Tropical Cyclone DOKSURI, currently at Typhoon category, steadily intensifies as it moves north-northwestward. The centre of the eye of Tropical Cyclone DOKSURI was estimated based on all available data including Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 500 km East of Baler, Aurora, the Philippines (PAGASA).
● MOVEMENT: Moving north-northwestward at 10 km/h.
● STRENGTH: Maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 190 km/h, central pressure of 955 hPa, and strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the centre.
● FORECAST:
Track
➢ DOKSURI is forecast to track west-northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning generally
northwestward and head closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon. On the track forecast, DOKSURI is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between 25-26 July.
➢ TC DOKSURI may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 27 July as it moves over the waters southwest of Taiwan. Further shift in the track forecast closer to Luzon remains a possibility due to the persistence of the ridge of high pressure north of the Tropical Cyclone.
Intensity
➢ DOKSURI is forecast to continue intensifying and reach super typhoon category by 25-26 July.
➢ However, should the track forecast shift closer to the landmass of Luzon, DOKSURI may peak at an intensity just below Super Typhoon threshold. DOKSURI is forecast to become a very strong typhoon.
➢ A weakening trend may begin by 26 July as it enters the cooler waters southwest and west of Taiwan
● TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL (TCWS):
➢ TCWS no. 2 - Wind threat Gale-force winds (minor to moderate threat to life and property): Catanduanes, eastern portion of Albay, northern portion of Camarines Norte, eastern portion of Camarines Sur, Isabela, northern and central portions of Aurora, Quirino, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, central and eastern portions of Mountain Province, eastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya, eastern portion of Ifugao, central and eastern portions of Abra, Ilocos Norte and Batanes; The northeastern portion of Northern Samar.
Full lists are available in this link.
➢ Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 4 or 5 (e.g., typhoon-force wind threat).
● HAZARD:
➢ Heavy rainfall: [24-25 July] at most 50-100 mm over Cagayan, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, and Sorsogon; [25-26 July] at most above 200 mm over Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, and the northern portion of La Union. In addition, DOKSURI may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas.
➢ Severe winds: at most minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 are in effect.