Philippines: El Niño Snapshot (as of 05 October 2015)

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that a mature and strong El Niño now prevails in the tropical Pacific Ocean and may continue to intensify and persist until the second quarter of 2016. The 2015-16 El Niño event could be potentially among the strongest events since 1950.

El Niño in the Philippines is characterized by delayed onset and early termination of the rainy season, weak monsoon activity and fewer tropical cyclones entering the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR). Forecast models show that large parts of the country would suffer from dry spells and drought in the coming months. The intensifying El Niño may also cause tropical cyclones to shift northward and increase in intensity.