Attachments
(Excerpt)
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
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After a brief period of westward or west northwestward movement, EGAY is forecast to turn northwestward and head closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon towards the Luzon Strait. On the track forecast, this typhoon is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between tomorrow late evening and Wednesday afternoon. Typhoon EGAY may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday as it moves over the waters southwest of Taiwan. Outside the PAR, the typhoon will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over Fujian, China on late Thursday or early Friday.
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It must be emphasized that further shift in the track forecast closer to Luzon remains a possibility due to the persistence of the ridge of high pressure north of the typhoon. This is represented by the forecast confidence cone. As such, a landfall over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out.
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EGAY is forecast to continue intensifying and reach super typhoon category by late tomorrow or on early Wednesday. However, should the track forecast shift closer to the landmass of Luzon, the typhoon may peak at an intensity just below STY threshold. Nevertheless, EGAY is forecast to become a very strong typhoon. A weakening trend may begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening as it enters the cooler waters southwest and west of Taiwan (i.e., Taiwan Strait).