Philippines

PAGASA Severe Weather Bulletin #2 for: Tropical Depression "Crising" - Tropical Cyclone: Warning, Issued 8:00 AM, 13 May 2021

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"CRISING" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND SLIGHTLY SLOWS DOWN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD.

Hazards affecting land areas

Heavy Rainfall:

  • Between today and tomorrow (14 May) morning, moderate to heavy rains over Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte.

  • Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels.

  • PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.

Severe Winds:

  • Strong breeze to near gale conditions is likely over the localities where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 is in effect, especially in the coastal and mountainous areas of these localities.

Hazards affecting coastal waters

In the next 24 hours, under the influence of Tropical Depression “CRISING”, moderate to rough seas will be experienced over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao (1.2 to 3.0 m). Mariners of small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over these waters. Inexperienced mariners of these vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Track and Intensity Outlook

  • On the forecast track, “CRISING” will move westward or west northwestward and is likely to make landfall over Surigao del SurDavao Oriental area between tonight and tomorrow early morning. Although a slight intensification remains likely, “CRISING” is forecast to remain as a tropical depression prior to landfall. Throughout tomorrow, the tropical depression is forecast to traverse the rugged landmass of Mindanao and may emerge over the Sulu Sea on Saturday (15 May) early morning.

  • “CRISING” is forecast to weaken into a remnant low on Sunday (16 May) early morning while passing over Palawan and dissipate shortly afterwards. However, due to the expected deterioration in the circulation of the tropical depression while traversing Mindanao, there is a possibility that the “CRISING” may weaken into a remnant low within in the next 36 to 48 hours.