Attachments
I. SITUATION OVERVIEW
22 January 2020, 4:00 PM
Since 5:00 AM this morning, there were no ash emissions based on our seismic records and visual observations. However, unconsolidated ash blanketing Taal Volcano Island has been remobilized and transported by strong low-level winds towards southwest (SW), affecting the towns of Lemery and Agoncillo. Reports from several airlines state the presence of remobilized volcanic ash at a height of approximately 5800m (19000ft).
PHIVOLCS reiterates Alert Level 4 over Taal Volcano. This means that hazardous explosive eruption is still possible within hours to days. DOST-PHIVOLCS strongly recommends total evacuation of Taal Volcano Island and high-risk areas as identified in the hazard maps within the 14-km radius from Taal Main Crater and along the Pansipit River Valley where fissuring has been observed. Based on PAGASA wind forecast, if the eruption plume remains below three (3) km, ash will be drifted to the municipalities west and southwest of the Main Crater; however, if a major eruption occurs during the day and the eruption column exceeds 5 km, ash will also be drifted over the eastern part of Laguna, and some parts of Rizal and Marinduque. Residents around the volcano are advised to guard against the effects of heavy and prolonged ashfall. Civil aviation authorities must advise pilots to avoid the airspace around Taal Volcano as airborne ash and ballistic fragments from the eruption column pose hazards to aircraft. DOST-PHIVOLCS is continually monitoring the eruption and will update all stakeholders of further developments.
A. Volcanic Earthquake
Source: DOST-PHIVOLCS
A total of 725 volcanic earthquakes were plotted in Taal region as of 22 January 2020, 6:00 AM. Of which, 176 were felt, ranging from Magnitude 1.2 — 4.1 and Intensity of I — V.
B. 3-Day Wind Forecast for Taal Volcano (22 January 2020, 5:00 PM — 24 January 2020, 5:00 PM)
Source: DOST-PAGASA NCR-PRSD
Batangas, Cavite, and Laguna will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains.
If the eruption column remains at 5.0 km or below, the ash plumes will be drifted to the municipalities west and northwest of Taal Volcano. However, if a major eruption occurs within the forecast period and the column exceeds 7.0 km, ash plumes may also be drifted over western parts of Laguna and Quezon.