Mindanao Humanitarian Team Elections Contingency Plan Bangsamoro Region (Covering May-October 2025)

The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) came into force in 2019 with the ratification of Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), catapulting the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) at the helm of transition regional government, now on its extended transition authority in 2025. At the start, this significant feat that came with the peace agreement brought higher expectations and anticipations from various sectors and stakeholders, a positive peace development in Southeast Asia, that ending decades-old armed struggle by a revolutionary front is possible. The leadership change in the region in March 2025 and the reappointment and new appointments of Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) members until the newly elected members of Parliament are in power, added layers in the region’s political dynamics in the lead up to the 2025 midterm elections in BARMM. This, alongside political situations at the national level, possibly drawing in solidarity sentiments.

Key tasks in running the nascent transition government and the implementation of the peace process took centrepiece of the regional government work. While succeeding parliamentary elections are seen to galvanise the political track of the peace process, the normalisation track, which includes decommissioning of combatants, is yet to be culminated and other aspects like implementation of socio-economic programs, amnesty, camp transformation, transitional justice and mechanisms are in varying phases of implementation.
Nonetheless, the region continues to be plagued by insecurities with infighting among non-state armed groups (NSAGs) and armed non-state actors (ANSAs), rido or clan feuds over land and politics dominate local conflict dynamics, causing displacements.

In March 2025, around 125,000 people remain displaced across Mindanao (OCHA Mindanao displacement snapshot),90 per cent of whom are protracted displacements, and the majority are in the Bangsamoro region.
Around 12,000 are newly but repeatedly displaced due to local conflicts and a situation of violence. Across Mindanao, the triggers of displacements are two-pronged: natural disaster and armed conflict, including situations of violence. For a three-year period (from January to June 2022-2024), there had been a 266 per cent increase in displacements in Mindanao. In June 2024, 66 per cent of displacements are from armed conflict, 23 per cent from natural hazards and over 10 per cent are from clan feuds and crime and violence (UNHCR Mindanao displacement trends, MHT meeting January 2025). Based on trends, armed violence peaked during political exercises like in the 2022 national and local elections, the 2023 barangay elections and these continue to manifest in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 in the lead up to the midterm national and local elections. The presence of armed actors, those included in the peace processes, those not and the proliferation of firearms, challenge governance, the rule of law, all these contribute to the region’s insecurities and vulnerabilities.

These against the backdrop of poverty incidence in the region, at 29.8 per cent, a deep dive from 54 per cent in 2018, with a sudden poverty incidence drop in Lanao del Sur from 71 per cent to 10 per cent; nonetheless, the poverty reduction was uneven across the region. Food insecurity in the region is at 38 per cent, compared to the national rate of 15 per cent (WFP VAM Study). Around 68 per cent of children aged 0-17 years old are living in poverty, the highest in the country. Only 37.2 per cent of households have access to basic sanitation facilities compared to 83.64 per cent nationally (FHSIS/UNICEF). In terms of grave violations against children documented and verified, 83 per cent are in Mindanao, which includes BARMM (6 th SG Report on Children and Armed Conflict CAAC in the Philippines).

The midterm 2025 national and local election is expected to contribute to the heightened insecurity in the region. Clan feuds and politically related security incidents have increased from 2022 to 2024, with a concentration of incidents in central Mindanao (UNDSS Threat Assessment Service, 2024). In BARMM, out of 579 profiled rido, over 400 have been resolved (MPOS at Joint BARMM-MHT, 24 March 2025). The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) in March 2025 listed 31 areas in BARMM with grave security concerns.
Security incidents have heightened for local crimes, targeted killings and assassinations; from October 2024 to February 2025, there were 87 security incidents, 18 were election-related (MHT meeting, February 2025). In February-March, 111 shooting incidents were recorded, 85 of which were in Cotabato City.

The nationwide gun ban for May 2025 polls started on 12 January 2025, nonetheless, with wide proliferation of firearms, presence of NSAGs and armed non state actors, armed conflict and situation of violence will continue to cause displacements and impact the longer-term recovery of affected communities as well as affect the operations of humanitarian and development workers.