This report documents the extent to which changes in weather patterns—both short-term and sustained—influence internal migration in the Philippines. Our primary goal is empirical, as several detailed reviews of the scholarly literature on this topic have already been published in recent years (e.g., ADB 2012; Bohra-Mishra 2017; Rigaud et al 2018). In particular, using both municipality- and individuallevel migration data in the 2010 census, we examine the effects of changes in weather and climate patterns on internal migration in the 2005-2010 period. We use a much larger, more detailed and higherresolution array of indicators than any existing research. We believe that this combination of characteristics provides observers and policy makers in the Philippines with a robust starting point for anticipating future population movements in response to ongoing climate variability.
The report is divided into four main sections. In the first, we review some key themes that emerge in the literature and influence our analyses. In the second section, we introduce our data and describe key trends in our core variables. The third is the central empirical section, where in three subsections we address the following questions:
To what extent can climate-related measures, or changes in those measures, help us explain outmigration rates at the level of the municipality?
How much is the strength of a particular migration stream between a given municipality of origin (in 2005) and a given destination (in 2010) affected by their relative climatological characteristics (e.g., heat, precipitation, drought)?
How much do climate factors help us explain an individual’s probability of migration, and if so, how does this vary by their individual characteristics, like gender, education, employment, indigeneity?
The fourth and final section briefly summarizes our results and points toward some policy relevant findings and recommendations.