Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Near-average cereal production forecast in 2024
- Record cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25
- Food security emergency on rice declared in early February 2025 due to persistently high domestic prices of rice
Near-average cereal production forecast in 2024
Harvesting of the 2024/25 main paddy crop, which accounts for about 60 percent of the annual output, finalized last December, with production officially estimated at 10.6 million tonnes, about 3 percent below the previous five-year average. Crop losses were caused by dry weather conditions in April and May 2024 in parts of Western Visayas, Central Luzon and Cagayan Valley regions as well as by flooding, storms and super typhoons in parts of Luzon and Visayas islands in October and November 2024. Planting of the 2024/25 secondary paddy crop, which accounts for about 40 percent of the annual output, is ongoing. Sowings are forecast to be above average, driven by attractive domestic prices at planting time and government programmes assisting paddy producers. To support domestic rice production, the government, in early December 2024, extended the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund until 2031, increasing the annual allocation from PHP 10 billion (USD 172 million) to PHP 30 billion (USD 518 million). With this measure, farmers receive seeds, farm mechanization support, credit assistance, training and extension services among other assistance. Remote sensing data from late January 2025 indicates generally good vegetation conditions across most of the country, inferring favourable yield prospects (ASI map). Given the current favourable outlook for the secondary paddy crop and assuming no major weather setbacks in the coming months, the aggregate paddy production in 2024/25 is preliminarily forecast at 19.7 million tonnes, up slightly from the five-year average.
Harvesting of the 2024 main maize crop finalized last September and production is officially estimated at a near-average level of 4.4 million tonnes. Despite below-average sowings, the good output is attributed to bumper yields owing to favourable weather conditions in the main maize producing areas and to widespread use of high-yielding seed varieties. Planting of the 2024 secondary season maize crop finalized last December. Sowings are estimated close to the average level and crop conditions are generally favourable.
Weather forecasts point to above-average precipitation amounts from February to April 2025 over most of the country, associated with the prevailing La Niña event. If this forecast materializes, conditions are likely to be conducive for crop development. However, excessive rains could trigger localized floods and affect crops at maturing or harvesting stages, with negative effects on the final production. In addition, above-average temperatures are forecast in central and southern parts of the country, with high risks for pest and disease outbreaks.
Record cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25
Total cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a record level of 14.2 million tonnes. Imports of wheat, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal imports, are forecast at 6.9 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average, mostly driven by population growth and increasing domestic consumption of wheat‑based food products. Imports of rice in the 2025 calendar year are forecast at 4.8 million tonnes, 12 percent below the record volume imported in 2024, but still about 30 percent above the average. It is likely that the private sector will continue to import large quantities of rice following the decision by the government to reduce the import tariff on rice from 35 to 15 percent in June 2024, with the aim to improve market supply and lower high domestic prices. Maize imports are forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, well above the five‑year average, due to strong demand by the feed industry.
Food security emergency on rice declared in early February 2025 due to persistently high domestic prices of rice
Domestic prices of regular and well‑milled rice, the country’s main staple, rose sharply between August 2023 and April 2024, reaching record levels. The increase was driven by rising prices in the international market, strong domestic demand and concerns about the effect of unfavourable weather conditions on the 2023/24 secondary crop and the 2024/25 main paddy crop. Since 2023, the government has implemented several measures with the aim to improve competitivity and productivity of agriculture and curb the rice price increases, including reduction of tariffs on imports and sales at subsidized prices for vulnerable households. Prices of rice stabilized between March and September 2024, and have slightly softened from October 2024 to January 2025 on account of improved supply from the 2024 main harvest and large imports. However, as of January 2025, prices of rice were still at high levels and, on 3 February 2024, the government declared a food security emergency on rice due to the “ extraordinary increase in prices ”, which will remain in effect until further notice. The declaration allows the release of buffer stocks held by the National Food Authority , with rice announced to be sold at a retail price of PHP 35/kg , significantly below current domestic prices.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .