Attachments
OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA, the low pressure area (INVEST 93W) developed into a tropical depression and was given the local name “WILMA.” Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5 at 0700H UTC+7 today indicates that Tropical Cyclone WILMA maintains its strength as it continues to move southwestward over the Philippine Sea. It was located based on all available data at 235 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA, WILMA has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa, moving southwestward at 15 km/h. Strong to gale force winds extend outwards up to 220 km from the centre.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5:
- TRACK: WILMA is forecast to move west southwestward until tomorrow (6 Dec) before turning generally westward for the remaining forecast period. On the forecast track, the center of WILMA may make its initial landfall or pass close over Eastern Visayas or Dinagat Islands between this evening and tomorrow morning. Afterwards, it will continue to traverse Visayas until Sunday (7 Dec). It will then emerge over Sulu Sea and may pass over northern Palawan by Monday (8 Dec) morning.
- INTENSITY: WILMA will slightly intensify before landfall but will likely remain as a tropical depression throughout the forecast period. Further intensification is possible once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea**.**
- PAGASA emphasizes that heavy rainfall and severe winds may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS):
- TCWS No. 1 (Minimal to minor threat to life and property): The southern portion of mainland Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Bohol, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental, Siquijor, the northern and central portions of Negros Oriental, the eastern portion of Iloilo, the eastern portion of Capiz, Guimaras, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Dinagat Islands, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur, the northern portion of Agusan del Norte and Camiguin.
HAZARDS: In addition to Tropical Cyclone Winds, PAGASA also warns of the following hazards:
- Heavy Rainfall: According to PAGASA Weather Advisory No. 7, the following areas are forecast to receive significant rainfall from today until Sunday (7 Dec) due to Tropical Cyclone WILMA and the Shear Line:
- 100-200mm: Today – Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate; Tomorrow (6 Dec) – Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Cebu, Negros Occidental, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Romblon, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate; on Sunday (7 Dec) – Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and Romblon. Numerous flooding events are likely, especially in areas that are highly urbanized, low-lying, or near rivers. Landslide likely in moderate to highly susceptible areas.
- 50-100mm: Today – Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Guimaras, Iloilo, Capiz, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Agusan del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Camarines Sur; Tomorrow (6 Dec) – Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Antique, Guimaras, Surigao del Norte, and Dinagat Islands, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Oriental Mindoro, and Marinduque; on Sunday (7 Dec) – Palawan, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Cebu, Laguna, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate. Localised flooding is possible mainly in areas that are urbanized, low lying, or near rivers. Landslide possible in highly susceptible areas.
- Rain-Induced Landslides and Flooding: A total of 12,106 barangays were identified at risk of rain-induced landslides and flooding based in PAGASA’s 72 hr rainfall forecast. (MGB)
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- Forecast track will pass through areas affected by recent tropical cyclones. Increased vulnerabilities may exacerbate impacts of Tropical Cyclone WILMA.
- Forecast track indicate that WILMA may reach the Viet Nam East Sea off the coast of the Central Region which has been severely affected by widespread flooding.
- According to ASMC, weak to moderate La Niña conditions are predicted until January 2026, with some models predicting the La Nina conditions to continue into February – March 2026.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- NDRRMOC elevated its alert status to BLUE in relation to Tropical Cyclone WILMA.
- The Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) has released the list of barangays susceptible to rain-induced landslides and flooding based on PAGASA Rainfall Data GSM (100mm) and WRF (150mm) 72-hour model to inform the public and local authorities, supporting localised preparedness and response for the incoming tropical cyclone.
- NDRRMC Regional Offices in areas along the forecast track and influence of Tropical Cyclone WILMA have conducted Pre-Disaster Risk Assessments in preparation for the incoming tropical cyclone.
- PAGASA conducts regular press briefings and issues regular warnings and advisories to
- NDRRMC and PAGASA continue to monitor and release advisories and early warning information Tropical Cyclone WILMA.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments, in coordination with NDRRMC Philippines, and issue necessary updates.