Flash update: No. 1 – Tropical Cyclone Penha – 5 February 2026

OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone PENHA has intensified into a tropical storm while over the Philippine Sea east of Mindanao. As of 0900H UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Cyclone PENHA has been located based on all available data at 295 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

STRENGTH, EXTENT, & MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 9 issued at 1000H UTC+7: Maximum sustained winds at 65 km/h with gustiness up to 80 km/h, minimum central pressure at 1000 hPa, moving westward at 25 km/h. Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the centre.

FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 9 issued at 1000H UTC+7:

• TRACK: PENHA is now moving westward and is expected to turn west northwestward beginning tomorrow (6 Feb) morning. On the forecast track, the centre of PENHA will make its initial landfall over Surigao del Sur tonight. After crossing Mindanao, it is likely to emerge over Bohol Sea tomorrow morning, and may pass close or make another landfall over Siquijor and the southern portion of Negros Oriental by tomorrow afternoon. By tomorrow evening or Saturday (7 Feb) early morning, it will emerge over Sulu Sea, then traverse the northern portion of Palawan between Saturday afternoon and evening.
• INTENSITY: PENHA may further intensify prior to its initial landfall. It will then slightly weaken as it interacts with the landmass but it will likely remain a tropical storm. Further weakening into a tropical depression is forecast by Saturday and will be downgraded into a low pressure area by Monday (9 Feb).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT:

• TCWS No. 2 Warning lead time 24 hours, range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9) is raised over the following areas: Siquijor, the southeastern portion of Negros Oriental, the southern portion of Cebu, the southern portion of Bohol, Surigao del Norte including Siargao – Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, the extreme northern portion of Davao Oriental, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, the northern portion of Bukidnon, the northeastern portion of Lanao del Norte, the northeastern portion of Misamis Occidental, and Camiguin.
• TCWS No. 1 Warning lead time 36 hours, range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7) is raised over the following areas: Cagayancillo, Cuyo Islands, the southern portion of Eastern Samar, the southern portion of Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, the rest of Bohol, the rest of Cebu, the rest of Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, Dinagat Islands, the northern and central portions of Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, the northern portion of Davao del Sur, the rest of Bukidnon, the northern portion of Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, the northern portion of Maguindanao del Norte, the rest of Lanao del Norte, the rest of Misamis Occidental, the eastern and central portions of Zamboanga del Norte, the northern and central portions of Zamboanga del Sur, and the northern portion of Zamboanga Sibugay.

HAZARDS:

Severe Winds – The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.

• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

Heavy Rainfall – Heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone PENHA and the Shear Line is issued for the following areas:

• 200 mm: Today – Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin

• 100-200 mm: Today – Siquijor, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Bukidnon, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, and Davao Oriental; Tomorrow noon to 7 Feb noon – Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental
• 50-100 mm: Today – Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Cebu, Leyte, Eastern Samar, Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Cotabato, and Davao del Sur; Tomorrow noon to 7 Feb noon – Palawan, Aklan, Capiz, Negros Oriental, Cebu, and Siquijor; 7 Feb noon to 8 Feb noon – Palawan, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and Camarines Norte
• According to PAGASA, the amount of rainfall may cause the following impacts:

>200mm rainfall: Widespread incidents of severe flooding and landslides expected.

100-200mm rainfall: Numerous flooding events are likely especially in moderate to highly susceptible areas. Landslide likely in moderate to

highly susceptible areas.

50-100mm rainfall: Localised flooding is possible mainly in areas that are urbanised, low-lying, or near rivers. Landslide possible in highly

susceptible areas.

Coastal Inundation

• There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights reaching up to 2.0 m within the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal communities of Agusan Del Norte, Antique, Bohol, Camiguin, Cebu, Davao Oriental, Dinagat Islands, Iloilo, Leyte, Misamis Oriental, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Southern Leyte, Surigao Del Norte, Surigao Del Sur, Cuyo and Cagayancillo Islands.

ANTICIPATED RISK:

• Heavy rainfall and severe winds may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone.
• Indirect impacts of TC PENHA may bring moderate to heavy rains over North Maluku, North Sulawesi, and Gorontalo provinces in Indonesia (BMKG).
• Weak La Niña is present in the tropical Pacific. Models suggest a 75% probability of transition to ENSO-neutral during the January-February-March 2026 season. La Niña increases the likelihood of above normal rainfall conditions and increased occurrence of tropical cyclone development in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). During this season, rain-bearing weather systems may bring occasional heavy rainfall, particularly over the eastern sections of the country. (PAGASA)

PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:

• The NDRRMCOC has raised its Alert Status to BLUE in connection with Tropical Cyclone PENHA (local name “Basyang”), coordinating with concerned regional offices and local authorities for tropical cyclone preparedness and response.
• NDRRMC and PAGASA conducts regular press briefings to update the public about the developments of the weather conditions and preparations for the potential impacts of the tropical cyclone.
• The DENR-MGB has released the list of barangays at risk of flooding and landslides to support local authorities in their localized preparedness and response measures.

The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation in coordination with NDRRMC Philippines and other potentially affected Member States, and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.