Attachments
I. Situation Overview
Issued on 24 July 2024 at 5:00 AM, Typhoon “Carina” continues to intensify while moving towards Taiwan.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall: Today
- 50-100 mm: Batanes and Babuyan Islands Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in official hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
Furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by “Carina” will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon today through Friday.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
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Minor to moderate impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
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Minor to moderate impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by “Carina” will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
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Today: Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the eastern portion of Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Northern Mindanao
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Thursday (25 July): Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the eastern portion of Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and Northern Samar
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Friday (26 July): Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the eastern portion of Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Gale Warning is in effect over the coastal waters of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern portion of Cagayan. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas.
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In the next 24 hours, “Carina” and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring rough seas over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the western seaboard of Central Luzon (2.5 to 4.0 m). Moderate to rough seas are also expected over the western seaboard of Southern Luzon (1.5 to 3.5 m) and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon (1.5 to 3.0 m) Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
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Moderate to rough seas are also expected over the western seaboard of Southern Luzon (1.5 to 3.5 m) and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon (1.5 to 3.0 m) Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
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“Carina” is forecast to make landfall over the northern portion of Taiwan this afternoon or early evening. On the track forecast, the typhoon will cross the rugged terrain of Taiwan and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow (25 July) early morning. Outside the PAR Region, CARINA will cross the Taiwan Strait and make its final landfall over southeastern China tomorrow morning or early afternoon.
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“Carina” is forecast to make landfall over the northern portion of Taiwan this afternoon or early evening. On the track forecast, the typhoon will cross the rugged terrain of Taiwan and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow (25 July) early morning. Outside the PAR Region, CARINA will cross the Taiwan Strait and make its final landfall over southeastern China tomorrow morning or early afternoon.
The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data 290 km Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes (22.9 °N, 123.5 °E) moving Northwestward 25 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 190 km/h.
Source: DOST-PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #18
II. Status of Affected Areas and Population
A total of 45,328 families or 191,062 persons are affected in 225 barangays in Regions NCR, I, II, III, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, V, VI, VII, and CAR (see Annex A).