Attachments
I. Situation Overview
Issued on 30 October 2024 at 5AM, Typhoon “Leon” further intensifies as it moves West Northwestward over the Philippine Sea.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 8 issued at 5:00 AM today for the Heavy Rainfall Outlook associated with “Leon”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of “Leon” is Wind Signal No. 4, especially in Batanes and Babuyan Islands. The hoisting of Wind Signal No. 5 is also not ruled out.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of “Leon” will also bring gusty conditions (strong to gale-force) over the following localities (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds) outside Wind Signal areas:
• Today (30 October): Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, most of Visayas, and Dinagat Islands.
• Tomorrow (31 October): Aurora, Batangas, Quezon, MIMAROPA, and Bicol Region.
• Friday (1 November): Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora.Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching 2.0 to 3.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 4 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARD AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon.Refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM today for the details.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas:
• Up to 12.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes
• Up to 10.0 m: The seaboards of Babuyan Islands and northeastern mainland Cagayan
• Up to 8.0 m: The remaining eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
• Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela; the remaining northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
• Up to 6.0 m: The northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboard of northern Aurora
• Sea travel is risky all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas:
• Up to 4.0 m: The western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the remaining seaboard of Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboard of Polillo Islands, the seaboard of Camarines Norte; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes
• Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Ilocos Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar.
• Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur,
Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; the emaining seaboards of Ilocos Region.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, and Kalayaan Islands; the western seaboard of northern Palawarn; the eastern seaboards of Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur
• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing outto sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• “Leon” is forecast to move northwestward over the Philippine Sea until it makes landfall along the eastern coast of Taiwan tomorrow (31 October) afternoon. After crossing the landmass of Taiwan, “Leon” will then turn north northwestward to northeastward over the Taiwan Strait towards the East China Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow evening or Friday early morning (1 November). A second landfall over mainland China is not ruled out during this period.
• “Leon” will be closest to Batanes from tomorrow early morning to noon time. A landfall in Batanes is also not ruled out.
• This tropical cyclone is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying over the Philippine Sea until prior to landfall over Taiwan. “Leon” will likely be at or near super typhoon intensity during its closest point of approach to Batanes.
The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data 395 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (18.9 °N, 125.2 °E) moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h with a maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 205 km/h.
Source: DOST-PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
II. Status of Affected Areas and Population
A total of 1,949,809 families or 7,633,032 persons are affected in 11,350 barangays in Regions NCR, I, II, III, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, V, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI, XII, Caraga, CAR, and BARMM (see Annex A).