Attachments
I. Situation Overview
Issued on 21 October 2024 at 5PM, Tropical Depression “Kristine” maintains its strength while moving west southwestward over the Philippine Sea.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook Refer to Weather Advisory No. 4 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “Kristine”.
Severe Winds The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
- The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of “Kristine” is Wind Signal No. 4.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of “Kristine” and the Northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
- Today (21 October): Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, the southern portion of Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, BARMM, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental
- Tomorrow (22 October): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Palawan, Romblon, Aklan, Antique, Negros Island Region, the northern portion of Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
- Wednesday (23 October): MIMAROPA, Visayas, and Mindanao.
HAZARD AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
- Up to 5.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Bicol Region
- Up to 5.0 m: the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar
- Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, Polillo Islands, the eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan
- Sea travel is risky all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
- Up to 4.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes, the remaining seaboards of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar.
- Up to 3.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon, the seaboard of Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte
- Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Bohol, Siquijor, Camiguin, the eastern seaboard of Davao Region and the eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon
- Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
- Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of the country.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
- Today (21 October): Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, the southern portion of Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, BARMM, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
- “Kristine” is forecast to move west southwestward until tomorrow (22 October) morning before turning generally west northwestward for the rest of the forecast period. On the track forecast, this tropical cyclone may make landfall over Northern Luzon on Thursday (24 October) evening or Friday (25 October) morning. Changes in forecast track is not ruled out, depending on the movement of the weather systems surrounding this tropical cyclone in the next few days.
- “Kristine” may intensify into a tropical storm in the next 12 hours. It may reach severe tropical storm category on Wednesday (23 October) and typhoon category on Thursday (24 October) before making landfall. Since this tropical cyclone is still over the Philippine Sea, rapid intensification is not ruled out given the favorable environmental conditions.
The center of the eye of Tropical depression “Kristine” was estimated based on all available data 760 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar (13.2 °N, 131.6 °E ) moving westward 15 kph with a maximum sustained winds of 55km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70km/h.
Source: DOST-PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
II. Status of Affected Areas and Population
A total of 60 families or 300 persons are affected in Brgy. Bantac, Magpet, North Cotabato (see Annex A).