Informing humanitarians worldwide 24/7 — a service provided by UN OCHA

Philippines

DSWD DROMIC Report #1 on the Effects of Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon “Falcon” as of 31 July 2023, 6PM

Attachments

I. Situation Overview

Issued on 31 July 2023 at 5PM, “Falcon” intensifies while moving North Northwestward over the Philippine Sea.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon “Falcon” will bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portion of Luzon and Visayas in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #18 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4PM today.

Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

Severe Winds

The hoisting of Wind Signal due to “Falcon” over any locality in the country remains unlikely based on the current forecast scenario. However, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring gusty conditions over the following areas, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:

  • Today: Zambales, Bataan, the central and southern portions of Aurora,
    Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, and most of Ilocos Region,
    CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas

  • Tomorrow: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, the central and southern portions of Aurora, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, and most of Ilocos Region, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas

  • Wednesday: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, the western portion of Northern Samar, and most of Western Visayas

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

In the next 24 hours, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by “Falcon” will bring moderate to rough seas over the coastal waters along the northern (1.2 to 2.8 m), western (2.5 to 3.5 m) and southern (1.5 to 3.0 m) seaboards of Luzon. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

  • “Falcon” is forecast to steadily move north northwestward or northwestward in the next 12 hours then turn west northwestward tomorrow over the Philippine Sea. On the track forecast, the typhoon may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or evening. Outside the PAR region, FALCON will turn west northwestward and pass close (landfall not ruled out) over Okinawa Islands in the Ryukyu Archipelago between tomorrow evening and Wednesday morning while gradually decelerating.

  • “Falcon” is forecast to further intensify in the next 12 hours and reach its peak intensity while maintaining its strength as it tracks over Okinawa Islands in the Ryukyu Archipelago.

The center of the eye of Typhoon “Falcon” was estimated based on all available data at 1,020 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (23.0°N, 131.4°E) moving North Northwestward at 15 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 205 km/h.

Source: DOST-PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11

II. Status of Affected Areas and Population

A total of 424,988 families or 1,599,071 persons are affected in 817 barangays in Regions III, CALABARZON, and VI (see Table 1).