Attachments
Situation Overview
Issued on 05 November 2024 at 5PM, “MARCE” slightly intensifies over the Philippine Sea East of Isabela.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow (06 November 2024):
- 50-100 mm: Cagayan Forecast accumulated rainfall on Thursday (07 November 20242):
- 50 – 100 mm: Batanes, Cagayan and Apayao Forecast accumulated rainfall on Friday (08 November 2024)
- >200 mm: Cagayan
- 100 – 200 mm: Apayao, Ilocos Norte, and Batanes
- 50 – 100 mm: Isabela, Abra, Ilocos Sur, Kalinga, and Mountain Province
Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in areas with significant antecedent rainfall.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of MARCE is Wind Signal No. 4.
Furthermore, the northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
- Today (5 November): Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte.
- Tomorrow (6 November): Ilocos Region, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
- Thursday (7 November): Ilocos Region
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts including all motor bancas of any type or tonnage. Mariners of these vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For larger vessels, operating in these conditions required experience and properly equipped vessels.
Vessel masters, boat captains, ship owners / operators, and Coast Guard units concerned are advised to take appropriate measures to ensure safety of life at sea.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
“Marce” is forecast to move generally west northwestward today until tomorrow, 6 November 2024, before decelerating and turning westward over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon. On the forecast track, “Marce” will make landfall or pass close to Babuyan Islands or the northern portion of mainland Cagayan on 7 November 2024, afternoon or evening. “Marce” may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region on 8 November 2024, afternoon or evening.
“Marce” is expected to continue intensifying and may reach its peak intensity before making landfall over Babuyan Islands or Cagayan.
The center of Typhoon “Marce” was estimated based on all available data at 480 km East of Echague, Isabela (17.2°N, 126.2°E) while moving Northwestward at 25km/h with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 160 km/h.
Source: DOST-PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
Predictive Analytics for Humanitarian Response (PAHR)
Based on the Global Spectral Model (GSM) & Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 72- hour Accumulated Forecast Rainfall initialized on 05 November 2024 at 2AM, the PAHR results show that 150,664 individuals (PSA 2020) and 22,952 poor families (Listahanan 3) in Regions I, II, MIMAROPA, IX, X, XI, Caraga, CAR, and BARMM may be potentially affected by Typhoon “Marce”.