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Situation Overview
Issued at 11:00 AM, 13 December 2021, the Tropical Depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) maintain its strength as it continues to move westward.
Track and Intensity:
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The tropical depression is forecast to move generally west northwestward and will likely enter the PAR region as a severe tropical storm on Tuesday (14 December) evening. The west northwestward movement is forecast to continue until Wednesday (15 December) morning. Afterwards, the tropical cyclone will turn westward and may make landfall in the vicinity of Caraga or Eastern Visayas by Thursday (16 December) afternoon or evening.
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Once inside the PAR, the domestic name “ODETTE” will be assigned to this tropical cyclone.
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This tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually intensify within the forecast period and may reach typhoon category by Wednesday. A peak intensity of around 150 km/h may be reached prior to landfall.
Strong Winds:
- Current track and intensity forecast shows that there is a high likelihood that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals will be hoisted for Visayas, large portions of Mindanao, and several provinces in Southern Luzon due to the threat of strong to typhoon-force winds. The highest possible wind signal that may be hoisted is TCWS #3. Localities situated in the eastern portions of Visayas and Mindanao may be placed under TCWS #1 as early as Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Rainfall:
- The passage of this tropical cyclone over the central portion of the archipelago may bring heavy rainfall over Visayas, large portions of Mindanao, and several provinces in Southern Luzon. Coastal inundation due to high waves near the coast and storm surge are also possible for low-lying localities near and along the path of the typhoon.
Residents over the northern and eastern portions of Northern Luzon and the eastern portion of Central Luzon are also advised to monitor for updates regarding possible heavy rainfall which may occur in relation to the behavior of the shear line during and after the passage of this tropical cyclone.
At 10:00 AM today, the center of the Tropical Depression was estimated based on all available data at 1,760 km east of Mindanao (5.2°N, 141.6°E) (outside the PAR).
Source: DOST-PAGASA Severe Weather Bulletin