Historical temperatures show a warming trend since the mid-20th century, with average annual mean temperature increasing by approximately 0.6°C and a significant increase in hot days and warm nights. These trends are similar to the Pacific region in general.
Under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, average temperatures are projected to increase by 2.9°C by the 2090s, approximately 1°C less than the global average, and 0.7°C by the 2090s under the RCP2.6 emissions pathway. These changes are reported against the 1986–2005 baseline.
Despite high uncertainty surrounding precipitation projections, 15 of 16 climate models assessed, projected at least some increase in precipitation.
The Philippines faces some of the highest disaster risk levels in the world, and these are projected to intensify as the climate changes. The country is especially exposed to tropical cyclones, flooding, and landslides.
The number of tropical cyclones making landfall is steadily increasing, with tropical cyclones appearing to also have greater intensity.
Sea-level rise is happening at an above-average rate for some parts of the Philippines, exposing up to one million people to flooding from rising sea levels by 2070–2100; investing in adaptation could potentially bring this number down significantly.
The agricultural sector is especially vulnerable to climate change impacts. Both increased flooding and the increased likelihood of droughts could impact agricultural land. This could contribute towards decreased agricultural productivity.
Without effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction, climate change is likely to exacerbate high existing levels of income and wealth inequality; poverty alleviation progress will be slowed.
- Asian Development Bank
- © Asian Development Bank